K\u00fcresel hisse senetleri, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131n olabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik sinyallere piyasalar\u0131n tepki vermesiyle %1,3 y\u00fckseldi; haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, anla\u015fman\u0131n hafta sonu kadar erken bir tarihte sa\u011flanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Hareket d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisseleri desteklerken, defansif sekt\u00f6rler geride kald\u0131 ve enerji hisseleri daha zay\u0131f seyretti. ABD\u2019de ana endeksler y\u00fckseldi; bu ton Asya i\u015flemlerine de ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rken, kazan\u00e7lar b\u00f6lge geneline yay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 anla\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah program\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla geli\u015ftirmeyece\u011fine dair g\u00fcvencelerin al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ele al\u0131n\u0131yor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, arz riskinin alg\u0131lan\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi takip ederek d\u00fcnk\u00fc sabah seviyesine k\u0131yasla %4,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88,8 dolara geriledi. S&P 500 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,8 art\u0131da kapat\u0131rken Nasdaq %2,5 y\u00fckseldi; Russell 2000 ise %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde prim yapt\u0131. ABD hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri yeniden y\u00fckselirken, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin KOSPI endeksi %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc pozitif tepki vermesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortama g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Anla\u015fman\u0131n bu hafta sonu teyit edilmesi halinde yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011finden, S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 gibi endekslerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) halihaz\u0131rda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 13,5 seviyesine, aylar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck noktas\u0131na geriledi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli riskleri daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7larla ikili i\u015flem (pair trade) f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 net \u015fekilde ortaya koyuyor. Rallide \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck eden sanayi ve teknoloji ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynaklanabilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i i\u00e7in bir darbo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisinin do\u011frudan bir sonucu. Tarihsel olarak, bu b\u00f6lgede tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6nemli bir risk primini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r; 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda da benzer bir etki g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde uzun s\u00fcre kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte vadesi dolacak ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu habere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tepki veren y\u00fcksek beta piyasalar\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Russell 2000\u2019in g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131, risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n geneline yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ilgili IWM ETF\u2019i \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin KOSPI endeksindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama, b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetlerinin faydas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; benzer \u015fekilde, ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek di\u011fer Asya ekonomileri \u00fczerinde de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu rallinin tamam\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi \u00fczerine kurulu. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde, piyasadaki geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm beklenmedik bi\u00e7imde bozulursa olas\u0131 zararlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan call almak yerine call spread gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejiler kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar \u201canla\u015fma\u201d sinyaliyle co\u015ftu: K\u00fcresel hisseler %1,3 artt\u0131, S&P 500 %1,8 y\u00fckseldi. Brent %4,6 d\u00fc\u015ferek 88,8 dolara indi; d\u00f6ng\u00fcseller \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken enerji zay\u0131flad\u0131. Risk-on stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}