EUR\/GBP, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8630 seviyesine gerileyerek, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ve Almanya\u2019dan gelen yeni verilerin ard\u0131ndan iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta GSYH, Mart\u2019taki %0,3 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu sonu\u00e7 %0,1\u2019lik daralma beklentisiyle uyumlu geldi. Hizmetler Endeksi \u00fc\u00e7 ay\/\u00fc\u00e7 ay baz\u0131nda %0,8 seviyesinde sabit kal\u0131rken, Sanayi \u00dcretimi ayl\u0131k bazda %0 ile yatay seyretti ve \u0130malat \u00dcretimi Nisan\u2019da %0,4 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda para piyasalar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; y\u0131l sonuna kadar ikinci bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n revize Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,7 artt\u0131; ayl\u0131k oran ise %0,1 geriledi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk kez faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politikan\u0131n 2027 boyunca y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131flayan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi ile \u015fahin bir BoE aras\u0131ndaki belirgin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izliyoruz. Nisan ay\u0131ndaki %0,1\u2019lik ayl\u0131k GSYH daralmas\u0131 \u2014 2023 ortas\u0131 gibi d\u00f6nemlerde de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc \u2014 piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu temel belirsizlik, EUR\/GBP paritesinde 0,8630 civar\u0131nda gerilim yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ECB ise y\u0131llar sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 2027\u2019ye kadar k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc ile \u00e7ok daha net bir sinyal verdi. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duru\u015f, \u00f6zellikle Almanya enflasyonu %2,7 ile hedefin belirgin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken Euro i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu tablo, ekonominin darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda BoE\u2019nin art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasalar bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili verileri sindirirken anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi EUR\/GBP opsiyon stratejileri sat\u0131n almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Paritede bir ayl\u0131k vadede ima edilen volatilite halihaz\u0131rda %7,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekteki %6,5 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan bu seviye, bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne sahip olanlar i\u00e7in, ECB\u2019nin net politika patikas\u0131n\u0131n BoE\u2019nin zor denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, Temmuz sonu veya A\u011fustos vadeli EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n BoE\u2019nin resesyon benzeri bir ortamda faiz art\u0131rma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon ve istihdam verileri olacak. Son raporda %4,4 seviyesinde bulunan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 kritik bir g\u00f6sterge olacak. \u0130\u015fsizlikte ilave bir art\u0131\u015f, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri \u00e7ekmesine yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla EUR\/GBP\u2019yi yukar\u0131 iter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/GBP 0,8630\u2019a geriledi: UK GSYH Nisan\u2019da %0,1 daral\u0131rken BoE Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp fiyatlan\u0131yor. Almanya HICP %2,7; ECB faiz art\u0131r\u0131p 2027\u2019ye dek s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k sinyali verdi. Volatilite %7,3; straddle ve call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48674\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}