Commerzbank, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) tonu hafif \u015fahin olsa da, Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n net bir y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 nedeniyle euronun geriledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da kurda anl\u0131k deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. EUR\/USD\u2019deki hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ilave bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131, anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu gerek\u00e7esiyle iptal etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan gelen jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan da etkilendi.<\/p>\n
Odak, s\u00f6z konusu iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha erken mi yoksa daha ge\u00e7 mi gelece\u011fine kayd\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri yerine Temmuz gibi erken bir hamle, daha acil bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma duru\u015fu olarak okunacakt\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma piyasalar\u0131n e\u011frinin ileri vadelerinde faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamas\u0131na da yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da ECB\u2019nin Temmuz\u2019da art\u0131\u015fa gitmesi h\u00e2linde bile euronun y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Haberde ayr\u0131ca i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin son ileti\u015fiminin Euro\u2019yu karma\u015f\u0131k bir konumda b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Banka faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek istiyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, piyasa bu y\u0131l iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatlad\u0131. Bu, \u015fahin havaya ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD\u2019nin ivme kazanmakta zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ve 1,0850 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretmesinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu ve May\u0131s\u2019ta %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da yak\u0131n vadede bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tezini destekliyor. Piyasalar ECB\u2019nin Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ad\u0131m atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 ile fiyatlarken, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ise kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Tart\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n *olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131* de\u011fil, ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Temmuz\u2019da bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Euro i\u00e7in olumlu olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; zira bu, ECB\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kararl\u0131 oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verir. Ancak imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flama sinyalleri verdi\u011fi bir ortamda, piyasalar\u0131n bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ad\u0131m\u0131 politika hatas\u0131 olarak yorumlama riski g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2027 i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak, para birimindeki olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcc\u00fc t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu belirsizlik, volatilitede f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 konusunda b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Temmuz ECB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan \u201cuzun straddle\u201d gibi stratejilerin uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir politika hatas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in daha uzun vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini de takip ediyoruz. Erken bir art\u0131\u015f ekonomiyi yava\u015flatabilir ve ECB\u2019yi daha sonra rota de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye zorlayabilir. Tarihsel \u00f6rneklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin 2008 ve 2011\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck yava\u015flamalardan hemen \u00f6nce faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir arg\u00fcman sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro neden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanam\u0131yor? ECB \u015fahin ama Lagarde y\u00f6ns\u00fcz; piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131. Temmuz hamlesi destekleyebilir, ancak erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma-indirim fiyatlamas\u0131 ve jeopolitik ak\u0131\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}