WTI, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n bu hafta sonu kadar erken bir tarihte \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na var\u0131labilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn %5,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85,00 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi, Trump\u2019\u0131n daha \u00f6nce ABD m\u00fcdahalesinin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na da uzanabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan planlanan askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 erteleme karar\u0131n\u0131 takiben geldi. Nihai bir metin hen\u00fcz onaylanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil; ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yar\u0131 resmi Fars haber ajans\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en deniz yollar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve n\u00fckleer silahlardan feragat taahh\u00fctlerini i\u00e7erece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 Tahran\u2019\u0131n kabul etmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tesisinin; deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n temizlenmesi, devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f sahalar\u0131n yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve \u0130HA ile f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda hasar g\u00f6ren tesislerin onar\u0131m\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlar gerektirecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. G\u00fcvenlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 seyrini korudu: ABD ordusu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc X\u2019te ticari gemilerin g\u00fcvenle ge\u00e7i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve ABD sava\u015f gemilerinden hi\u00e7birinin vurulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, ABD gemilerinin f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA\u2019larla hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, LSEG ve Kpler verileri, transponder\u2019lar\u0131 kapal\u0131 halde bo\u011fazdan Asya\u2019ya do\u011fru \u00fc\u00e7 ilave LNG tankerinin ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Hindistan ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Umman\u2019daki \u015einas Liman\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda bir gemi olay\u0131 raporlad\u0131; bu hafta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc vaka olurken, Hint rafinerileri Reuters\u2019a en az A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar yetecek ham petrole sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 85,00 dolara sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n ger\u00e7eklerden ziyade haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) bu hafta \u015fimdiden %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131 ve bu tedirginli\u011fin yak\u0131n vadede i\u015flemleri belirlemesini bekliyoruz. Ana gerilim, olas\u0131 bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek lojistik kaos aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fma ihtimali fiyatlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) ve bu olas\u0131 sonucu dikkate almak gerekiyor. Baz\u0131 analistlerin, alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varile kadar ek arz getirebilece\u011fini hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, 2015\u2019te JCPOA a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne benzer \u015fekilde k\u00fcresel dengeleri belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu nedenle, anla\u015fma imzalanmas\u0131 halinde ani bir fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bi\u00e7imde sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin hafife al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kaynak metin, may\u0131n temizli\u011fi, altyap\u0131 onar\u0131mlar\u0131 ve g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir su yolunda sevkiyat\u0131n normalle\u015fmesinin g\u00fcnler de\u011fil aylar alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden herhangi bir man\u015fet, sert bir fiyat geri s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 ralliyi yakalamak i\u00e7in de\u011ferli bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili askeri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in klasik bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bizce en iyi yakla\u015f\u0131m, belirli bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7mekten ziyade belirsizli\u011fin kendisini i\u015flem konusu yapmak. Bu da, m\u00fczakerelerin sonucunu tahmin etmeye ihtiya\u00e7 duymadan her iki y\u00f6ndeki b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden getiri sa\u011flayan \u201clong straddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi stratejileri A\u011fustos vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinde \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha net bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahip yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in kredi spread\u2019leri (credit spreads) bunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle ifade etmenin etkili bir yolunu sunuyor. LNG tankerlerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 transponder kullanmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veriler, fiziksel piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimini korudu\u011funu ima ediyor; bu da ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d tezini destekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, lojistik engellerin bask\u0131n fakt\u00f6r oldu\u011funa inan\u0131l\u0131yorsa, bir \u201cbull call spread\u201d olas\u0131 bir rahatlama rallisinden faydalan\u0131rken potansiyel kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde g\u00f6zler Trump-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda: WTI %5,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 85 dolarda. Olas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131larken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de lojistik ve g\u00fcvenlik belirsizli\u011fi OVX\u2019i z\u0131platt\u0131; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48666\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}