Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iptal etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanarak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 4.240 dolar civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. BBC\u2019nin haberine g\u00f6re Trump, Tahran ile m\u00fczakerelerin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey liderli\u011fine iletildi\u011fini ve onayland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran ise herhangi bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin nihai bir sonuca hen\u00fcz varmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Alg\u0131lanan jeopolitik riskteki bu de\u011fi\u015fim ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri ile ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratarak dolar bazl\u0131 metalin destek bulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Odak noktas\u0131 para politikas\u0131nda da: Federal Rezerv\u2019in, gelecek hafta Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olarak ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %67 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Di\u011fer tarafta, merkez bankas\u0131 talebi yap\u0131sal bir \u00f6zellik olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi\u011fini ve bunun kay\u0131tlardaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Y\u00fcksek seyreden ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ise enflasyon kanal\u0131yla ve faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi beklentisi \u00fczerinden potansiyel bir k\u0131s\u0131t olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta, Orta Do\u011fu ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da jeopolitik gerilimler s\u00fcrerken alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.350 dolar civar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ancak diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere dair baz\u0131 i\u015faretlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte metal bir miktar geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu durum, risk priminin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenip s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmedi\u011fini ya da yaln\u0131zca soluklan\u0131p soluklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir duraksama yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in temel bask\u0131 unsuru, Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin duru\u015fu olmaya devam ediyor. Son T\u00dcFE verisinin %3,1 ile beklentilerin bir miktar \u00fczerinde gelmesi, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi umutlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak CME FedWatch arac\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyon verisi ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,35 civar\u0131nda korunuyor. Daha y\u00fcksek getirileri genellikle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar izledi\u011finden, dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in zorlu bir ortam olu\u015fuyor. DXY endeksini, son d\u00f6nemdeki direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kamayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; b\u00f6yle bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde muhtemelen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Pozisyonlanma cephesinde, risk kaynakl\u0131 son rallinin ard\u0131ndan metalin bir miktar \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. En g\u00fcncel CFTC verileri, hedge fonlar ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nemli net-uzun pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da i\u015flemin kalabal\u0131kla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine ve olumlu bir ekonomik veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya da gerilimin azalmas\u0131 halinde geri \u00e7ekilmeye a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131lara ra\u011fmen, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban talebinin olas\u0131 sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 ve Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 290 tonun \u00fczerinde al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Bu istikrarl\u0131 al\u0131mlar, fiyat i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir uzun vadeli taban olu\u015fturuyor ve agresif \u015fekilde k\u0131sa pozisyon almaya temkinli yakla\u015fmam\u0131za neden oluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda fla\u015f toparlanma: Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iptal mesaj\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fatt\u0131, dolar ve tahvil getirileri geriledi. G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de; yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon bask\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48664\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}