Sterlin\u2019in Jeopolitik Rallisi Ekonomik Veri Testiyle Kar\u015f\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131ya<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini, tamamen ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi bir ralli sonras\u0131 \u201c\u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f zaman\u201dda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu jeopolitik rahatlama GBP\/USD\u2019yi sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, hareketin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n kendi ekonomik hik\u00e2yesiyle bir ilgisi yok. \u015eimdi ise yo\u011fun bir ekonomik veri g\u00fcndemi yakla\u015f\u0131rken bu kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 savunuyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Cable\u2019\u0131n dar bir alana s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Paritenin 1,3400\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama ile 1,3450 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fiyat iyi tutunmu\u015f olsa da momentum g\u00f6stergeleri resetlendi; bu da piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketi ba\u015flatacak yeni bir kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
O kataliz\u00f6r bu sabah, 12 Haziran 2026 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n ayl\u0131k GSYH verisinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla gelmi\u015f olabilir. Rapor, Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in %-0,2 daralmay\u0131 teyit ederek yurt i\u00e7i ekonominin k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2lini ortaya koydu. Bu zay\u0131f veri, Sterlin\u2019deki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye do\u011frudan meydan okuyor ve oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n temel sorunlar\u0131na \u00e7eviriyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Merkez Bankas\u0131 Kararlar\u0131 ve Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, gelecek hafta g\u00fcndem tamamen merkez bankalar\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc toplan\u0131yor ve son ABD enflasyon verilerinin %3,5 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle verecekleri ton ABD Dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. Fed\u2019in, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015fenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulayan \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilemesi, GBP\/USD\u2019de ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fleri muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sadece birka\u00e7 saat sonra \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) kendi karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Burada zorlu bir tablo var: Ekonomi durgunla\u015f\u0131rken Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu %3,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu stagflasyonist ortam ciddi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor ve BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Sterlin i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk olay\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaya bu kadar yo\u011fun \u201colay riski\u201d s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanan stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmesi gereken bir d\u00f6nem oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek ana seviyemiz 1,3400 olmaya devam ediyor. Sterlin bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece son kazan\u0131mlar korunuyor. Ancak \u00f6zellikle jeopolitik sakinli\u011fin ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma t\u00fcm ralliyi geri ald\u0131rabilir ve 1,33 b\u00f6lgesini \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde gerilerken, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n 17:30 GMT k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iptal etmesi ve anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesiyle s\u0131\u00e7rama yapt\u0131. GBP\/USD diplerden bir \u201cbig figure\u201ddan (100 pip) fazla y\u00fckseldi; hareketin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k haberlerinden ziyade jeopolitikti. ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Sal\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran K\u00f6rfez genelindeki Amerikan \u00fcslerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermi\u015fti; Trump ayr\u0131ca Hark Adas\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 da eylem tehdidinde bulunurken \u0130ran herhangi bir anla\u015fmaya dair resm\u00ee do\u011frulama sunmad\u0131; bu da ralliyi gelen veriler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Cable, 1,3400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndan 1,3300\u2019lerin alt\u0131na geriledikten sonra y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirerek 1,3400\u2019\u00fc yeniden ald\u0131 ancak 1,3450\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda tak\u0131ld\u0131. Tepki, fiyat\u0131 1,3400 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine geri ta\u015f\u0131rken, d\u00fc\u015fen 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 1,3450 alt\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i Stoch RSI ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine indi. \u0130lk Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verisi 06:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan GSYH\u2019si; 0,3% sonras\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda -0,1% bekleniyor; bunun yan\u0131nda sanayi ve imalat \u00fcretimi ile t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentileri (baz %3,2) izlenecek. ABD\u2019de Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi verisi takip edecek; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi en son %4,8 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Gelecek hafta Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019si (y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8) geliyor; Fed karar\u0131 18:00 GMT\u2019de ve politika faizinin %3,75\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor (ABD \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,5 bas\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131); ard\u0131ndan BoE\u2019nin de ayn\u0131 %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 son olarak %-1,3 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\u2019de jeopolitik rahatlama rallisi, zay\u0131f Nisan GSYH (-%0,2) ile s\u0131nan\u0131yor. GBP\/USD 1,3400-1,3450 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed\/BoE haftas\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir; 1,3400 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,33 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}