{"id":48660,"date":"2026-06-12T04:36:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T04:36:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-anlasmasinda-ilerleme-orta-dogu-risk-primini-baskilarken-wti-iki-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesine-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T04:36:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T04:36:16","slug":"abd-iran-anlasmasinda-ilerleme-orta-dogu-risk-primini-baskilarken-wti-iki-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesine-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-anlasmasinda-ilerleme-orta-dogu-risk-primini-baskilarken-wti-iki-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesine-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ilerleme Orta Do\u011fu risk primini bask\u0131larken WTI iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Nisan ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerileyerek 84 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde yeni iki ayl\u0131k dipleri test etti. Hareket, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fman\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n imzas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump da anla\u015fma imzalan\u0131r imzalanmaz H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da iptal etti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n FARS ajans\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi metni kabul etti\u011fini ve onay ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu bildirirken, ayr\u0131 haberlerde ise prensipte bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 Dini Lider Hamaney\u2019in onay\u0131n\u0131n gerekti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n

Teknik olarak WTI, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini koruyor. Fiyatlar 88,12 dolar, 90,85 dolar ve 94,70 dolardaki 20, 100 ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrederken, RSI negatif Momentum okumalar\u0131yla birlikte 38 seviyesine do\u011fru geriliyor. Diren\u00e7 88,12 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 90,85 ve 94,70 dolar seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; destek 83 dolarda, sonras\u0131nda 80 dolar ve Nisan\u2019daki dip olan 78,88 dolarda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Geli\u015fmeler ve Piyasa Etkisi<\/h3>\n

Yeni jeopolitik ortam dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, WTI\u2019da 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na son k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme de\u011fil, temel bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n art\u0131k olas\u0131 bir arz fazlas\u0131na odaklanaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte i\u015flem ortam\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali \u00f6nemli; zira g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilden fazla petrol buradan ge\u00e7iyor ve bu, k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Mevcut tahminler, anla\u015fman\u0131n kesinle\u015fmesini izleyen alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimini en az 1 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn art\u0131rabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yeni arz\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat rallilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n

Volatilite, \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Tarihsel Emsal<\/h3>\n

\u00d6rt\u00fck volatilitede sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemledik; CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) bu hafta 15 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerileyerek 28 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum, hem yatay bantta fiyat hareketinden hem de d\u00fc\u015fen volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon primi satmay\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. 88 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri uygulamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda, WTI e\u011frisinin \u00f6n taraf\u0131 daha derin bir kontangoya ge\u00e7ti; bu da yak\u0131n vadede arz fazlas\u0131 beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. 88,12 dolarl\u0131k hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130lk hedefimiz 80 dolardaki psikolojik destek seviyesi olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu durumun tarihsel bir emsali de bulunuyor; 2015\u2019te \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk kez a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve takip eden alt\u0131 ayda %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti. 80 dolar deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da Nisan diplerine yak\u0131n 78,88 dolar seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrolde kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma: WTI 85 dolar alt\u0131na sarkarak 2 ay\u0131n dibini test etti. \u0130ran-ABD anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 risk primini siliyor; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ay\u0131, hedef 80-78,88.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48660\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}