USD\/JPY, jeopolitik bir sars\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetiklemesinden \u00f6nce seans\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 160,50 civar\u0131nda gezindi. 17:30 GMT sonras\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ak\u015fam yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n iptal edildi\u011fini ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; bunun \u00fczerine parite iki saat i\u00e7inde bir b\u00fcy\u00fck rakam d\u00fc\u015ferek 159,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerindeki dip seviyelere indi. Bu hareket, g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki ABD verilerinin i\u015faret etti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcn tersineydi: May\u0131s \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %1,1 artt\u0131 (beklentiler yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7), bu da bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri de bir indirimden ziyade Fed art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimaline biraz daha yakla\u015ft\u0131. Piyasa tepkisi, tonu enflasyon verilerinden \u00e7ok tahvil getirilerinin belirledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD kuvvetlerinin Sal\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurdu\u011fu, Tahran\u2019\u0131n da Bahreyn, Kuveyt ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki Amerikan \u00fcslerini hedef alan balistik f\u00fczelerle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fi; Trump\u2019\u0131n da daha \u00f6nce Harg Adas\u0131\u2019na el koyma tehdidinde bulundu\u011fu oynak 48 saatin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Fars\u2019tan gelen haberler herhangi bir metnin onaylan\u0131p onaylanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verirken, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 devam etti. Risk yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 enerji ve faiz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 vurdu: Brent %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi; iptallerin ard\u0131ndan iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi Japonya taraf\u0131nda ise geri \u00e7ekilme, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) bir hamlesi olmadan yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 piplik bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131; ancak hareketin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, anla\u015fman\u0131n teyidine ve bu hafta sonu Avrupa saatlerinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY zor bir noktada; 157,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolara i\u015faret ediyor, ancak piyasa bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek her t\u00fcrl\u00fc habere kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassas. Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz geriliminin son d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gibi jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar, paritede keskin ve ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilimi tahvil piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s ABD enflasyonu %3,2 ile beklentiden biraz daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 geldi, ancak Fed\u2019in son projeksiyonlar\u0131 bu y\u0131l sadece bir olas\u0131 faiz indirimi sinyali veriyor. Bu politika fark\u0131 k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iyi destek bulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor, fakat yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde tedirgin oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya i\u00e7in enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren her t\u00fcrl\u00fc gerilimin azalmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir rahatlama. Brent petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolara do\u011fru gerilemesiyle Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat maliyetleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 bir miktar hafifliyor. Bu durum Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na (MOF) da zaman kazand\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek kur seviyesi, \u00fclke i\u00e7in enerji ithalat\u0131n\u0131 daha da pahal\u0131 h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi m\u00fcdahalenin ger\u00e7ek bir tehdit oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lgeye geri d\u00f6nd\u00fck. Japon yetkililer \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u201d hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 defalarca uyard\u0131 ve 2022 ile 2024\u2019ten tarihsel veriler, yen bu seviyelerin \u00f6tesinde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131mlar atmaktan \u00e7ekinmediklerini g\u00f6steriyor. 158,00\u2019in \u00fczerinden ya\u015fanan son geri \u00e7ekilme onlara ge\u00e7ici bir nefes ald\u0131rd\u0131, ancak ku\u015fkusuz yak\u0131ndan izliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sertti ve tepki zay\u0131f kald\u0131; 157,50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda t\u0131kand\u0131. Bu seviye art\u0131k parite i\u00e7in yeni bir tavan gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yeniden bunun \u00fczerine atma denemeleri sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; bu da piyasan\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc test etmeye daha meyilli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u015fimdilik 157,50 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesinin do\u011fru strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Bu piyasa man\u015fetlerle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; jeopolitik risklerin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair her i\u015faret veya Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n harekete haz\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir sinyal, muhtemelen pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Fed\u2019in yava\u015f hareket eden politikas\u0131 ile Japonya\u2019n\u0131n artan aciliyeti aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 i\u015flemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Gerilimi azaltma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde teyit edilmi\u015f bir bozulma ya da beklenenden s\u0131cak bir ABD istihdam verisi, pariteyi yeniden 158,00\u2019e do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek tetikleyici olabilir. Di\u011fer yandan, \u00f6zellikle resmi Japon ad\u0131m\u0131yla desteklenen 156,50 alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 155,00 band\u0131na do\u011fru daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7ar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 iptal mesaj\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160,50\u2019den 159,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00dcFE\u2019ye ra\u011fmen tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. M\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcrerken 157,50 tavan; 156,50 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 155 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}