AUD\/USD, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7000 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ge\u00e7irdi. Ancak parite, GMT 17:30 sonras\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi; Ba\u015fkan Trump, planlanan ak\u015fam sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 iptal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201c\u00f6z\u00fcnde\u201d sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Parite dip seviyelerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek sent y\u00fckseldi; bu hareket, risk alg\u0131s\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u201crisk-proxy\u201d davran\u0131\u015f\u0131yla uyumluydu. Ne var ki bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen bir teyitle desteklenmedi. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri Sal\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnleri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurdu; \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; Tahran, Per\u015fembe \u015fafak \u00f6ncesi bask\u0131nlara Bahreyn, Kuveyt ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerini hedef alan balistik f\u00fczelerle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Trump ayr\u0131ca Hark Adas\u0131\u2019na ve daha geni\u015f enerji ihracat altyap\u0131s\u0131na el koyma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftu; \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 ise y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran cephesinden gelen mesajlar karma\u015f\u0131k kal\u0131rken, yar\u0131 resm\u00ee kanallar herhangi bir metnin onayland\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131n\u0131 reddetti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Washington, bu hafta sonu Avrupa\u2019da olas\u0131 bir imza t\u00f6renini, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve imza sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015ftu. Piyasalarda Brent petrol %3\u2019ten fazla gerileyerek Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesine, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Kur hareketi ise Avustralya\u2019da i\u00e7 veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmadan ve Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) pasif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Teknik olarak AUD\/USD daha sonra 0,7050\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak zirvelere yak\u0131n konsolide oldu; Stoch RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mdan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nerken hareket 70 piplik bir ivme bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler, 0,7050\u2019nin 0,7100\u2019e do\u011fru bir pivot olmas\u0131; yeniden t\u0131rmanacak bir gerilimde ise 0,7000 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,6950.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda man\u015fetlerin y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi bir piyasada ilerliyoruz; Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki sert ralli, yaln\u0131zca tek taraf\u0131n teyit etti\u011fi iddia edilen bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. 0,7000 \u00fczerindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama klasik bir \u201crisk-on\u201d tepkisi olsa da, t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131 Washington ya da Tahran\u2019dan gelecek bir sonraki a\u00e7\u0131klamaya kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli ve taktiksel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin, son sald\u0131r\u0131lar s\u0131ras\u0131nda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinden gece saatlerinde %9\u2019un alt\u0131na kadar geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ortalama %7\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015fman\u0131n bozulma riskini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da \u0130ran\u2019dan resm\u00ee teyit gelene kadar k\u0131sa volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n son derece dikkatli y\u00f6netilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2018-2019 ABD-\u00c7in ticaret m\u00fczakereleri d\u00f6nemindeki man\u015fet odakl\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde duyarl\u0131l\u0131k bir anda tersine d\u00f6nebiliyordu. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bu t\u00fcr ate\u015fkes ve gerilimi azaltma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201craf \u00f6mr\u00fc\u201d k\u0131sa oluyor ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde yeniden test ediliyor. Bu nedenle uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 uzun vadeli elde tutma yerine taktiksel \u201ckiralama\u201d olarak g\u00f6rmek, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle ilerlemek gerekir.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7050 \u00fczerinde konsolide olmas\u0131yla, riski tan\u0131mlayan stratejilerde\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 0,7100 seviyesini hedefleyen haftal\u0131k call spread al\u0131mlar\u0131nda\u2014f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, anla\u015fman\u0131n hafta sonu imzalanmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalarken, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131 durumunda azami kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u0130ran\u2019dan gelecek teyitli bir yalanlama, uzun pozisyonlardan \u00e7\u0131kmak ve put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in sinyal olacakt\u0131r; zira 0,7000\u2019in k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 paritenin h\u0131zla 0,6950\u2019ye geri \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Brent petroldeki e\u015f zamanl\u0131 %3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na inmesi, Aussie g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 son \u00e7eyrek ticaret verilerinin de g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere giderek daha fazla enerji ihracat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale geldi. Ayr\u0131ca petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon hacmindeki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 da not ediyoruz; bu durum, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bar\u0131\u015f korunuyor olsa bile AUD \u00fczerinde bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son dakika: Trump\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iptal edip \u201canla\u015fma\u201d sinyali vermesi AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7000 alt\u0131ndan 0,7050 \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ran teyidi yok; Brent %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Man\u015fet riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48658\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}