USD\/CNY 6,78 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n modeli \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) referans kur tespitinin (fixing) bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcne g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Yuan\u0131n seyrini, \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici enflasyonu ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131rken dahi Pekin\u2019in k\u00fcresel ham petrol piyasalar\u0131nda agresif al\u0131ma y\u00f6nelmek yerine yurt i\u00e7i petrol rezervlerine dayanma karar\u0131 \u015fekillendirdi. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00dcFE (PPI), Nisan\u2019daki %2,8\u2019e k\u0131yasla y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,9 artt\u0131; T\u00dcFE (CPI) ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,2 y\u00fckselerek Bloomberg konsens\u00fcs\u00fc olan %1,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE Nisan\u2019daki %1,2\u2019den %1,1\u2019e gerileyerek, kurda sert bir reaksiyon yaratmadan marj bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n etkisini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u00c7in, ticari ve stratejik stoklar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor; uydu verileri 7 Haziran\u2019a kadar olan bir ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 milyon varilin kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda stok \u00e7eki\u015flerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu miktar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n neredeyse kapanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in kaybetti\u011fi arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birine denk geliyor ve toplam rezervlerin 1,2 milyar varil oldu\u011fu tahminiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Devlete ait rafineriler i\u015fleme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere indirirken, sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi koruma kurallar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda akaryak\u0131t ihracat\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n \u015fiddetlendirdi\u011fi k\u00fcresel petrol \u015foku Pekin taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle y\u00f6netilirken, Yuan\u2019\u0131n \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede istikrarl\u0131 tutuldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131k piyasadan al\u0131m yapmak yerine yurt i\u00e7i ham petrol stoklar\u0131na ba\u015fvurmas\u0131 nedeniyle USD\/CNY\u2019nin 6,78 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m ABD dolar\u0131 al\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve para birimi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 145 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, bu rezerv stratejisi kurun dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak USD\/CNY i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %3,5 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda keskin hareketler beklemedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, yurt i\u00e7i ekonomide artan bask\u0131lar izlenmeli; fabrika maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ile zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark, Haziran 2022\u2019den bu yana en geni\u015f seviyede. \u015eirket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma, 50,1 seviyesindeki son Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisiyle de teyit ediliyor; zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep, Yuan\u2019da belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralliye alan b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131t dinamikler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en etkili yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n bant hareketine pozisyon almak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Resm\u00ee y\u00f6nlendirme ile zay\u0131f temel dinamiklerin birle\u015fimi, strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteden getiri sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadede 6,80\u2019in \u00fczerine bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da 6,75\u2019in alt\u0131na bir gerileme beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022 enerji krizini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: Benzer \u015fekilde devlet rezervlerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahaleler, di\u011fer k\u00fcresel para birimleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ya\u015farken Yuan\u2019\u0131 kontroll\u00fc bir patikada tutmu\u015ftu. Politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel fiyat \u015fokunun en olumsuz etkilerinden para birimini yine yal\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz nerede? PBoC fixing deste\u011fi ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fcksek Brent ortam\u0131nda rezervden yemesi USD\/CNY\u2019yi 6,78\u2019de tutuyor; enflasyon ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, PMI zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ralliye izin vermiyor; volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, bant senaryosu \u00f6nde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49809,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48657\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}