{"id":48655,"date":"2026-06-12T03:05:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T03:05:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/eur-usd-dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-yatay-seyretti-odak-ecb-fed-politika-farki-ve-opsiyon-seviyelerine-kaydi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T03:05:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T03:05:58","slug":"eur-usd-dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-yatay-seyretti-odak-ecb-fed-politika-farki-ve-opsiyon-seviyelerine-kaydi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-usd-dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-yatay-seyretti-odak-ecb-fed-politika-farki-ve-opsiyon-seviyelerine-kaydi\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla yatay seyretti; odak ECB-Fed politika fark\u0131 ve opsiyon seviyelerine kayd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla %0,36 y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iptal etmesinin ve ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmak \u00fczere oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Parite en son 1,1579 seviyesinden kotasyon ald\u0131; hafta i\u00e7i 1,1589 civar\u0131ndaki diplerden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,1600\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) toparlan\u0131yor, ancak 50\u2019deki n\u00f6tr e\u015fik seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

1,1600\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lerin 1,1655-1,1676 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yak\u0131nsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 diren\u00e7 band\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirecek; bunun \u00fczerinde 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 1,1689\u2019da ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1700 seviyesi izlenecek. Parite 1,1600\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa odak 1,1500 deste\u011fine kayar; bu seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 30 Mart g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesi olan 1,1443\u2019\u00fc ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1400\u2019\u00fc hedef haline getirir. G\u00fcn\u00fcn para birimi performans tablosu, euronun en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Mevcut Piyasa Yap\u0131s\u0131 ve S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcler<\/h3>\n

Bu analizde oda\u011f\u0131n 1,1600 seviyesinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ancak bu fiyat seviyesi, farkl\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00f6neminden kalma uzak bir hat\u0131ra. Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla, 12 Haziran 2026 tarihinde EUR\/USD 1,0850\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da eski teknik seviyeleri mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tamamen \u00f6nemsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcler, ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131n siyasi yorumlar\u0131ndan merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131n sert ger\u00e7eklerine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

\u015eu anda temel unsur, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun son veride %2,9 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin faizlerde \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015funa i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de en g\u00fcncel PCE deflat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn %2,5\u2019e gerilemesi, y\u0131l bitmeden Fed faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Teknik ve T\u00fcrev Piyasas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1,0900 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 kilit bir diren\u00e7 seviyesi olarak izliyoruz; bu seviye 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamayla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite ge\u00e7en ayki %6,5\u2019ten %7,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha belirgin fiyat hareketlerini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 1,0780 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, stop-loss emirlerinde zincirleme bir tetiklenmeye yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcze benzer \u015fekilde, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131nda belirgin ayr\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemleri paritede kal\u0131c\u0131 trendlere zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Fed yetkililerinden gelebilecek g\u00fcvercin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n 1,0900 \u00fczerine bir hareket i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirecek \u015fekilde pozisyon al\u0131rken, son dip seviyelerin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 da hedge uyguluyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar zay\u0131flay\u0131nca EUR\/USD toparland\u0131; art\u0131k odak 1,0850 \u00e7evresinde ECB-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. 1,0900 kritik diren\u00e7, 1,0780 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa stoplar tetiklenebilir. Volatilite y\u00fckseliyor, y\u00f6n merkez bankalar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48655\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}