\u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s g\u00f6stergeleri, Standard Chartered\u2019\u0131n anket ve faaliyet verilerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re istikrarl\u0131 fabrika \u00fcretimine kar\u015f\u0131n daha zay\u0131f talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Resmi imalat PMI 50,3\u2019ten 50,0\u2019a gerileyerek piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; yeni sipari\u015fler endeksi ile yeni ihracat sipari\u015fleri g\u00f6stergesi ise daralma b\u00f6lgesine inerek talep hatt\u0131nda yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen sanayi \u00fcretiminin (IP) bir miktar ivme kazanmas\u0131 bekleniyordu; Nisan\u2019daki %4,1\u2019in ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat faaliyeti ve y\u00fcksek teknoloji imalat\u0131ndan gelen destekle temellendirildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, konuttaki durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrmesiyle sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 5A-2025 d\u00f6neminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,0 daralaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi; talebin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin de daha da yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son veriler, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fcretim ile zay\u0131flayan yurt i\u00e7i talep aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. May\u0131s resmi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 49,5\u2019e gerileyerek yeniden daralma b\u00f6lgesine indi ve fabrika \u00fcretiminin yeni sipari\u015flerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da stoklar\u0131n birikebilece\u011fine, bunun da yak\u0131n vadede fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Talepteki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen emlak krizi ve temkinli t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 bulunuyor. Ge\u00e7en ay 70 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirde yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131 art arda on birinci ayda da geriledi; toplam sosyal finansman art\u0131\u015f\u0131 rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye inerek kredi talebinin zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fini teyit etti. Gayrimenkuldeki bu s\u00fcregelen durgunlu\u011fun, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan sanayi \u00fcretimi, \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek teknoloji sekt\u00f6rlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat\u0131n deste\u011fiyle May\u0131s\u2019ta %6,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. Ancak PMI\u2019\u0131n yeni ihracat sipari\u015fleri alt endeksi 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da d\u0131\u015f destek unsurunun yak\u0131nda zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fcn gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 maskeledi\u011fi hassas bir tablo yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, yurt i\u00e7i zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da \u00c7in gayrimenkul ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6rlerine odaklanan ETF\u2019ler \u00fczerinde put\/koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar, konut piyasas\u0131ndaki gerilemenin kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131ndan ve zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici alg\u0131s\u0131ndan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mevcut \u00fcretim ile zay\u0131flayan ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sipari\u015fler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyallerin piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu da, \u00c7in ana endekslerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, yurt i\u00e7i in\u015faat talebi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri gibi end\u00fcstriyel emtia vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de alarm zilleri: May\u0131s PMI daralma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na indi, yeni sipari\u015fler zay\u0131flad\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimi ihracatla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da emlak krizi, kredi yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen talep bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Put\/volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48649\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}