G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililer, wonun (KRW) zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte d\u00f6viz (FX) piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik denetimi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak y\u00f6nlendirmeden daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6zetim a\u015famas\u0131na ge\u00e7ti. Finansal Denetim Servisi (FSS), b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin inceleme periyodunu ayl\u0131ktan haftal\u0131\u011fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; ko\u015fullar\u0131n istikrar kazanmamas\u0131 halinde bunun g\u00fcnl\u00fck takibe \u00e7evrilmesi de g\u00fcndemde. Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoK) ile FSS\u2019nin ayr\u0131ca, 14 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk kez b\u00fcy\u00fck FX bankalar\u0131nda ortak denetimler ba\u015flatmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Denetimlerin oda\u011f\u0131, i\u015flemlerin uygunsuz kazan\u00e7 amac\u0131yla kur seviyelerini oynatmaya ya da belirli bir seviyede \u201csabitlemeye\u201d \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacak; ihlallerin ise a\u011f\u0131r yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/KRW, ge\u00e7en cuma 2009\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 1.558\u2019e y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan 1.520 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana KRW %5,4 de\u011fer kaybederek Asya para birimleri aras\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor; INR %-5,9 ve IDR %-7,3 ile KRW\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunurken, KRW bu hafta USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %2\u2019den fazla de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Hisse senetlerinde Kospi endeksi, ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvesinden %12\u2019yi a\u015fan bir d\u00fczeltme ya\u015famas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu y\u0131l \u015fu ana kadar %83 y\u00fckseldi; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l %76 y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gelen bu performansa kar\u015f\u0131n, KRW \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 net yabanc\u0131 hisse \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik belirsizlikle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililerin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesini, USD\/KRW i\u00e7in bir tavan olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. S\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lardan aktif g\u00f6zetim ve denetime ge\u00e7ilmesi, politika kaynakl\u0131 sert bir ters hareket riskini belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu a\u015famada, wonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satarak (short) \u201ckolay kazan\u00e7\u201d d\u00f6nemi geride kalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Artan denetim, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek opsiyon stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131labilir. K\u0131sa vadede h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kuru daha dar bir bantta tutabilmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 USD\/KRW\u2019de prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, m\u00fcdahalenin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve wonun daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde paritede put opsiyonu almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri elde etmenin bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmetin duru\u015funu destekleyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temeller de var: G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bununla birlikte, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmiyor. Bu durum, resmi politika ile kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar aras\u0131nda bir m\u00fccadele zemini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Kospi\u2019yi de yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; endeks, son %12\u2019lik geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen bu y\u0131l h\u00e2l\u00e2 %83 art\u0131da. Daha sert bir hisse d\u00fczeltmesi, yeniden yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek won \u00fczerinde an\u0131nda bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Yetkililer spek\u00fclasyonla m\u00fccadele edebilir; ancak hisse senedi duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bozulursa ger\u00e7ek bir sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yla m\u00fccadele etmekte zorlan\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahalelerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; 2022\u2019de para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen yo\u011fun dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek. B\u00f6yle bir harekette ters tarafta yakalanma riskini dikkate alarak uzun USD\/KRW pozisyonlar\u0131na maruziyeti azalt\u0131yoruz. En temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, BoK ve FSS\u2019nin piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 para birimini savunma konusunda ne kadar kararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyi beklemek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Won zay\u0131flay\u0131nca Seul frene bast\u0131: FSS bankalar\u0131n FX pozisyon denetimini haftal\u0131\u011fa indirdi, g\u00fcnl\u00fck izleme g\u00fcndemde. BoK-FSS ortak tefti\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; kur manip\u00fclasyonuna a\u011f\u0131r yapt\u0131r\u0131m sinyaliyle USD\/KRW\u2019de tavan riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48648\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}