WTI, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 89,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 rallinin ard\u0131ndan piyasada d\u00fczeltme ya\u015fanmas\u0131yla %0,86 geriledi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerin, son sald\u0131r\u0131lara ra\u011fmen s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi; Katar \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen mesaj trafi\u011fi, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n topyek\u00fbn sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor \u015feklinde yorumland\u0131. K\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli tehdidin alg\u0131sal olarak azalmas\u0131yla fiyatlar gev\u015fedi. Bununla birlikte Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 gece boyunca \u201c\u00e7ok sert\u201d vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ana petrol ihracat terminali olan Harg (Kharg) Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 fikrini g\u00fcndeme getirdi. Harg Adas\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyordu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de arz-talep g\u00f6stergeleri s\u0131k\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. EIA, ge\u00e7en hafta ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 7,2 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; beklenti 4 milyon varildi ve b\u00f6ylece stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri serisi uzad\u0131. Enflasyon verileri de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu: A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5 artarken, T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 oldu. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da masada.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son ralli, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerle desteklenmi\u015fti; ancak diplomatik arka kanallar\u0131n devreye girebilece\u011fi ihtimali k\u00e2r realizasyonunu tetikliyor. Bu belirsizlik, bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde zorlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son deniz olaylar\u0131 fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015ftururken, Ummanl\u0131 yetkililer \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere dair haberler h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir diplomatik \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolunun arand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasa, bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7en yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ciddi \u015fekilde aksamas\u0131 riskini, ani bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 tart\u0131yor. Bu jeopolitik primin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa ve olumlu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda h\u0131zla ortadan kalkabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Talep taraf\u0131nda ABD piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Son Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu, ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3,7 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti; bu, daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme bekleyen analistleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, stoklar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc trendin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve y\u00fcksek fiyatlara ra\u011fmen fiziksel talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n genel enflasyona yans\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi %3,5 ile hafif y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirdi. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemindeki toplant\u0131da Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015fa i\u015faret etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, artan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Askeri bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f ya da s\u00fcrpriz bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 etkili olabilir. Y\u00f6nsel beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in ise call veya put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131, giderek daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez hale gelen bu piyasada riski tan\u0131mlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor mu? WTI 89,50 dolar civar\u0131nda %0,86 gerilerken diplomasi sinyalleri jeopolitik primi t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Ancak Trump\u2019\u0131n Kharg tehdidi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; ABD stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon Fed belirsizli\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}