{"id":48642,"date":"2026-06-11T23:36:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T23:36:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ppi-surprizi-ve-iranin-petrol-tehdidinin-ardindan-dow-yatay-seyrederken-piyasalar-fed-kararina-hazirlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T23:36:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T23:36:31","slug":"ppi-surprizi-ve-iranin-petrol-tehdidinin-ardindan-dow-yatay-seyrederken-piyasalar-fed-kararina-hazirlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ppi-surprizi-ve-iranin-petrol-tehdidinin-ardindan-dow-yatay-seyrederken-piyasalar-fed-kararina-hazirlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"PPI s\u00fcrprizi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan Dow yatay seyrederken, piyasalar Fed karar\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yaln\u0131zca \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir kay\u0131pla kapand\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirken, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve Beyaz Saray\u2019dan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kharg Adas\u0131 petrol terminaline y\u00f6nelik yeni tehditler geldi. \u0130\u015flemler oynak seyretti: g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde 50.000\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkan endekste al\u0131mlar geldi ve 50.350\u2019ye do\u011fru toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; ancak 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerle yeniden 50.100 civar\u0131na itildi. New York a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 50.400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131na uzanan y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00f6nd\u00fc ve Dow kapan\u0131\u015fta 50.200 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste %1,1 artt\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %6,4 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken \u00f6nceki %5,7 seviyesinden h\u0131zland\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,4 ile %0,5 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131 (beklenti %5,4). \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 219 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 229 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Ham petrol, Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu) olas\u0131 hedef olarak an\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 89 dolar civar\u0131na do\u011fru gev\u015fedi; ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda ablukaya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri, 16-17 Haziran\u2019daki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neredeyse kesin bir \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d fiyatlarken; yeni noktasal grafi\u011fin (dot plot) yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh d\u00f6nemindeki ilk karar da izlenecek. Piyasalar, art\u0131k bu y\u0131l ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi yerine faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131yor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 14:00 GMT\u2019de Michigan \u00dcniversitesi \u00f6nc\u00fc anketi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 44,8\u2019den 46 civar\u0131na, beklentilerin 44,3\u2019e gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,8, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,9 seviyesinde. Teknik tarafta 50.350 ve 50.400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131 diren\u00e7; 50.100 ard\u0131ndan 50.000 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip 49.950\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131; ayr\u0131ca orta bantta bir Stoch RSI g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon ve Stagflasyon Risklerine Kar\u015f\u0131 Piyasa Duyars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

Piyasada, \u00e7ok net enflasyon uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan klasik bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu izleniyor. %6,5\u2019lik \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI) ciddi bir seviye olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi \u015fimdilik diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor. Bu durum, tehlikeli bir duyars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yerle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve ileride oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in \u201ckurulu yay\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

%6,5\u2019lik \u00dcFE verisi alarm niteli\u011finde ve \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %11\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022\u2019deki pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 229 bine y\u00fckselmesi, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 215 binin alt\u0131ndaki seviyelerden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcr\u00fcnmeye i\u015faret ederek stagflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Man\u015fetteki enerji \u015foku bu kadar belirginken, piyasan\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek verideki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapmaya odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n hatal\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Enerji Riskleri ve Olay Bazl\u0131 Stratejiler<\/h3>\n

\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u201cs\u00f6z d\u00fcellosu\u201d diye ge\u00e7i\u015ftirilemez. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinin birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 90 dolar civar\u0131ndan 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine f\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak yeterli. Ham petrol zaten 89 dolar civar\u0131ndayken, benzer ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji hisseleri ve petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde opsiyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de koltukta yeni bir ba\u015fkan varken \u00f6nemli bir \u201colay riski\u201d ta\u015f\u0131yor. Piyasa pas ge\u00e7meyi fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir; ancak tart\u0131\u015fma belirgin bi\u00e7imde olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu, 2023 sonlar\u0131ndaki Fed\u2019in \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc and\u0131r\u0131yor ve bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6nde de sert harekete oynayan, b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Michigan \u00dcniversitesi enflasyon beklentileri verisi, izlenmesi gereken en yak\u0131n kataliz\u00f6r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte (Haziran 2022 \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi) bu rapordaki s\u00fcrpriz bir s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyebildi\u011fini ve piyasada belirgin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fini biliyoruz. Dow\u2019un 50.100 ile 50.400 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu tabloda, \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d bir enflasyon verisi 50.000 deste\u011finin test edilmesini kolayca g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; bu da koruyucu put\u2019lar\u0131 gerekli bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dow, %6,5 \u00dcFE ve artan i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n oynak seyirde 50.200\u2019de tutundu. \u0130ran-Kharg gerilimi petrol riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Fed \u201cpas\u201d fiyatlansa da art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 masada. Teknikte 50.000 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48642\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}