USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00f6n bulmakta zorland\u0131; ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen 160,50 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, Tokyo\u2019nun nisan sonundaki benzer seviyelerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen hamleye benzer \u015fekilde yeniden devreye girebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle temkinli kald\u0131. Japon yetkililer, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ve d\u00fczensiz hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; bu da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Dolar\u2019a ra\u011fmen paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilim, Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi. Washington, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan ilave sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Reuters, iki taraf\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 \u00fczerinde mesajla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin d\u00fczenlemelerin de g\u00fcndemde oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,23 civar\u0131nda, 6 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesindeydi. Enflasyon verileri de Fed\u2019in \u015fahin beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: May\u0131s \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (Nisan %5,7; beklenti %6,4), T\u00dcFE ise %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE %4,9\u2019da kalarak %5,4\u2019l\u00fck tahminin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve BoJ\u2019un kademeli normalle\u015fme duru\u015fu yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 160,50 seviyesine yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar ile m\u00fcdahale tehdidi aras\u0131nda net bir bilek g\u00fcre\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2022 sonbahar\u0131nda yeni savunmak i\u00e7in 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatmak gerekir; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla mevcut uyar\u0131lar ciddiye al\u0131nmal\u0131. Bu da net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6rmeden \u201cdo\u011frudan uzun\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ile m\u00fcdahale tehditleri aras\u0131ndaki gerilim nedeniyle volatilitenin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. CME\u2019nin JPY\/USD vadeli i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in CVOL endeksi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 12 ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu da piyasa tedirginli\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, her iki y\u00f6nde sert bir hareketi yakalamak amac\u0131yla straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerinin k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekliyor ve pariteye kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Son T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonu %4,2\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla CME FedWatch Tool, Temmuz\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da Dolar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 ve ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri yen i\u00e7in do\u011frudan negatif. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi nedeniyle WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131 \u00fczerinden para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, yenin kendi ba\u015f\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, risk profili tan\u0131ml\u0131 i\u015flemler kurguluyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin 161,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131p 163,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak call spread gibi y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritede olas\u0131 kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken Japon yetkililerin aniden devreye girmesi durumunda azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY 160,50\u2019de kilitlendi! G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar (DXY 100,23) ve artan ABD enflasyonu y\u00fckseli\u015fi desteklerken, Tokyo\u2019nun m\u00fcdahale tehdidi y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; volatilite 12 ay zirvesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48641\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}