\u00c7in\u2019in ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019ten bu yana y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131yor. Sanayi sat\u0131n alma fiyatlar\u0131 ve \u00dcFE (PPI) Mart ay\u0131nda pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7tikten sonra Nisan ve May\u0131s\u2019ta h\u0131zland\u0131; b\u00f6ylece \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fan bir deflasyon d\u00f6nemi sona erdi. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc metaller, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 talebine ba\u011fl\u0131 elektronik girdiler ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ili\u015fkili petrol t\u00fcrevi maliyetler yer ald\u0131. Resmi ihracat fiyat endeksi Nisan\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak son y\u0131llarda ihracat fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, hem zamanlama hem de \u00f6l\u00e7ek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fiyat ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin yukar\u0131 zincirde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: \u00dcFE enflasyonu imalatta, madencilik ve ham maddelere k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f; t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00dcFE\u2019si ise deflasyonda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Genel ihracat fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ba\u015fl\u0131ca ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kalarak \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bununla birlikte, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131m patlamas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda entegre devre (IC) ihracat fiyatlar\u0131 IC ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Mevcut maliyet kaynakl\u0131 yeniden enflasyonun 2021-22\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; zira COVID kaynakl\u0131 aksamalara ba\u011fl\u0131 ultra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir baz etkisi bulunmuyor ve d\u00fc\u015fen imalat kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131n da yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere daha zay\u0131f i\u00e7 taleple birlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve uzun bir deflasyon d\u00f6neminin sona erdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni petrol ile yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bile\u015fenlerde artan ithalat maliyetleri. \u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun son verilerine g\u00f6re May\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00dcFE\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,2 artarken, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde T\u00dcFE (CPI) %0,5 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu tablo, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebin maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketiciye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi\u011fini ve bunun da i\u00e7 pazara d\u00f6n\u00fck \u015firketlerde marjlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu enflasyon, madencilik ve ham maddeler gibi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sekt\u00f6rlerde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, imalat ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 geride kal\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn yak\u0131n zamanda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klarda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n gerek\u00e7eli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in bu trende maruz kalmak ad\u0131na emtia ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nemli bir istisna ise yapay zek\u00e2 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc: \u00c7in\u2019in entegre devre ihracat fiyatlar\u0131, yo\u011fun k\u00fcresel talep nedeniyle h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, k\u00fcresel teknoloji devlerinin veri merkezlerine y\u00f6nelik milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor; Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n son finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da \u00e7iplerine y\u00f6nelik rekor d\u00fczeyde talebin devam etti\u011fini ortaya koydu. Bu e\u011filimden faydalanabilecek se\u00e7ili \u00c7inli yar\u0131 iletken ve yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in ihracat fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00c7in ihracat\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dezenflasyonist bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor. Bu durum, baz\u0131 piyasa beklentilerinin aksine ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) gibi merkez bankalar\u0131na ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemek i\u00e7in daha fazla alan sa\u011flayabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, faizlerin yatay ya da gerileyen seyretti\u011fi senaryolardan faydalanan devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi pozisyonlar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Maliyet kaynakl\u0131 mevcut yeniden enflasyonun, 2021-22 d\u00f6nemindeki kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. Bunun nedeni, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n %75,2\u2019ye gerilemesiyle de g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha yumu\u015fak i\u00e7 talep. Bu da \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselse bile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle do\u011frudan agresif y\u00fckseli\u015f bahislerinde temkinliyiz; bunun yerine, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan getiri sa\u011flarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran sanayi endekslerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread) gibi stratejileri tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fan deflasyon bitti: ithalat maliyetleri (metal, petrol, AI elektroni\u011fi) \u00dcFE\u2019yi %1,2\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, T\u00dcFE d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131. Emtia\/IC f\u0131rsat\u0131, tahvil ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47744,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}