Sterlin, sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 ABD \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol\u00fc dip seviyelerinden y\u00fckseltmesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,19 geriledi. GBP\/USD, 1,3391\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3330 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve FARS kaynakl\u0131 haberler piyasadaki huzursuzlu\u011fu art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,10 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 100,18\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 endeksi desteklerken, WTI 88,63 dolardan yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,36 dolara toparland\u0131 ancak yine de %1,50 ekside kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00dcFE (PPI) May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5 artt\u0131; bu oran %5,7\u2019den y\u00fckselirken %6,4\u2019l\u00fck tahminin hafif \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019i enerji kaynakl\u0131yd\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9 ile %5,4\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Nisan\u2019a g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi. \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ise 6 Haziran ile biten haftada 229 bin oldu; beklenti 219 bindi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta dikkatler, swap piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) 46 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak GSYH verisine \u00e7evriliyor; Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksinin de 44,8\u2019den 46\u2019ya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, piyasalarda art\u0131k temel belirleyici unsur konumunda ve ABD dolar\u0131na do\u011fru klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikliyor. Enerji maliyetlerinin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi ve %6,5 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret eden son \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi verisi, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Bunu, k\u0131sa vadede dolar lehine pozisyonlanmak ad\u0131na net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle, 1,3159 destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak \u00fczere put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Parite 1,3411 civar\u0131ndaki kritik teknik direncin alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor ve artan jeopolitik gerilim piyasa volatilitesini y\u00fckseltmeli. Bu da, tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk sunmalar\u0131 nedeniyle opsiyonlar\u0131 spot d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n verdi\u011fi tepkiyi and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz; bu da WTI veya Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir i\u015flem fikri haline getiriyor. Varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviye, kritik \u00fcretim tesisleri ya da sevkiyat g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten risk alt\u0131ndaysa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,9\u2019da sabit kalmas\u0131, altta yatan fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ancak 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde merkez bankalar\u0131, kredibilitelerini korumak ad\u0131na enerji kaynakl\u0131 man\u015fet enflasyona sert tepki vermi\u015fti. \u015eimdilik, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha n\u00fcansl\u0131 detaylardan ziyade man\u015fet risklere tepki vermesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmekle birlikte, bu beklenti dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc ve k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6lgeleniyor. Yar\u0131n zay\u0131f bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH verisi, sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kolayl\u0131kla h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle sterlinde k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri potansiyel bir sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik riskler ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 ABD \u00dcFE s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; sterlin %0,19 geriledi. Petrol dipten toparland\u0131. GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3159 hedefli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk art\u0131yor; UK GSYH kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48637\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}