ING, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) dayan\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, negatif reel faizler ve enflasyonda s\u00fcregelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. May\u0131s enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,4 oldu; ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn h\u00fck\u00fcmet m\u00fcdahaleleri ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki y\u00fcksek g\u0131da fiyat\u0131 baz etkisiyle ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana maliyet\/\u00fcretim hatt\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve zay\u0131f yenin fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 lehine \u00fc\u00e7 kar\u015f\u0131 oy \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, ayr\u0131ca iki di\u011fer politika yap\u0131c\u0131 da o tarihten bu yana daha fazla normalle\u015fmeye destek verdiklerini ima etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Banka, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyele yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi ve enflasyonun 2027\u2019ye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ortamda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine izin verecek ko\u015fullar\u0131n olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede politika faizinin 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar %1,50\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. BoJ haziranda ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcncel Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) al\u0131m plan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; mevcut plan, gelecek mart ay\u0131na kadar \u00e7eyrek ba\u015f\u0131na 200 milyar JPY azalt\u0131m \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor, ancak piyasa i\u015fleyi\u015finde iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kanaatine var\u0131l\u0131rsa bu azalt\u0131ma ara verilmesi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Nisan\u2019dan itibaren bir ara olsa dahi, itfalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle tahvil stoku k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeli; ING, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisinin 2027\u2019ye kadar %3,0\u2019a y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fine g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin son Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi %2,1\u2019e toparlanarak, devlet s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 azal\u0131rken altta yatan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini teyit etti. Buna haz\u0131rlanman\u0131n bir yolu, politika faizi y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e fayda sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fken faiz almak \u00fczere faiz swaplar\u0131na girmek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 senaryosu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurt i\u00e7i temellerle de destekleniyor; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki Shunto ilkbahar \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ortalama %4,5 art\u0131\u015fla (30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fckse\u011fi) sonu\u00e7land\u0131. Bu \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 165 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalan kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131f yenle birle\u015fti\u011finde belirgin bir enflasyonist bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bunu, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yenden faydalanacak pozisyonlar (\u00f6rne\u011fin JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak) olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirilerinde sert bir sat\u0131\u015f yerine kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, politika faizini art\u0131r\u0131rken dahi piyasa istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma (tapering) konusunda son derece temkinli davranmas\u0131 muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, getirilerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle JGB vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 kademeli olarak art\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu politika bile\u015fimi\u2014net bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131nda yumu\u015fak bir azalt\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fmesi\u2014getiri e\u011frisinde dikle\u015fme stratejisine i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli ve uzun vadeli devlet tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na pozisyon alman\u0131n temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bu, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar kullan\u0131larak 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilere k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem\/pozisyonlarla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar teyakkuzda: ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re BoJ haziranda 25 bp faiz art\u0131racak; b\u00fcy\u00fcme diren\u00e7li, enflasyon riskleri yukar\u0131. Politika faizi 2027\u2019de %1,50, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisi %3 hedefleniyor; swap, JPY opsiyonlar\u0131 ve e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48634\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}