Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC), politika faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da %2,25 seviyesinde sabit tutarak Nisan ay\u0131nda devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc politika esnekli\u011fini korudu. A\u00e7\u0131klamada, ABD\u2019nin Kanada\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik yeni ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131na, faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir gerek\u00e7e olarak at\u0131fta bulunulurken; kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyreden enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise politika faizinde ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 gerektirebilece\u011fi belirtildi. Piyasalar ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in toplam 50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma konusunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir aciliyet sinyali verdi; ekonominin arz fazlas\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yayg\u0131n bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kan\u0131t bulundu\u011funu ifade etti. Bu arka planda, swap e\u011frisinin ima etti\u011fi patika \u201cfazla agresif\u201d olarak nitelendirildi; e\u011fer faiz beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilirse USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,4140\u2019a (Kas\u0131m 2025 zirvesi) do\u011fru kademeli \u015fekilde y\u00fckselme alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son faiz indirimini %4,75\u2019e \u00e7ekmesini, Fed\u2019den net bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G7 i\u00e7inde gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatan ilk merkez bankas\u0131 olarak BoC\u2019nin patikas\u0131 art\u0131k ABD\u2019den farkl\u0131 bir rotaya oturmu\u015f durumda. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcyen politika fark\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n birincil belirleyicisi olmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Son enflasyonun %2,7 ile hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Banka\u2019n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. En g\u00fcncel \u00e7eyreklik GSYH verilerinin yaln\u0131zca %1,7 ile zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etmesi de ekonomide belirgin bir arz fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, BoC\u2019ye para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re swap e\u011frisi, BoC\u2019nin gelecekteki politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla agresif; bu y\u0131l ilave indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n, ABD\u2019de daha istikrarl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Kanada i\u00e7in daha g\u00fcvercin bir ger\u00e7ekli\u011fe uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla birlikte USD\/CAD\u2019in kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015f riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli hedefimiz, 2025 sonundan gelen \u00f6nemli bir zirve olan 1,4140 seviyesi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, hedefimize do\u011fru olas\u0131 kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken riski net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlar. Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131nda belirginle\u015fen ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir kurulum sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoC faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutup iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc esnekli\u011fi korudu: ABD ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 indirim kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 aralarken, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Piyasa 50 bp fiyatl\u0131yor; agresif swap patikas\u0131 USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,4140\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}