Nomura, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) 18 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %0,00 seviyesinde tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; enflasyon dinamikleri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir itki sunuyor. Enflasyon enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f olsa da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; faaliyet g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergilerken \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 belirsizlik devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla d\u00f6viz politikas\u0131 \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re, son toplant\u0131dan bu yana SNB yetkilileri d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme isteklili\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti; buna 3 Haziran\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Schlegel\u2019in ve 21 May\u0131s\u2019ta Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Antoine Martin\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da d\u00e2hil. CHF, Mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana EUR kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f olsa da SNB ay sonunda 1\u00c7 i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerine ili\u015fkin verileri yay\u0131mlayacak. Tahmin, s\u00f6z konusu verilerin \u00e7eyrek boyunca frang\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 daha fazla m\u00fcdahaleye i\u015faret edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu duru\u015fun, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte de\u011fi\u015fmeyen %0,00 faizle birlikte s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta 18 Haziran\u2019daki toplant\u0131da SNB\u2019nin politika faizini %0,00 seviyesinde tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bunun temel nedenleri, yurti\u00e7i enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyri ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan jeopolitik belirsizlik. Faizlerdeki bu istikrar, k\u0131sa vadeli \u0130svi\u00e7re faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde belirgin fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 beklenmemesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda man\u015fet enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca %1,2 gelmesine i\u015faret eden son \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor. Bu seviye, Euro B\u00f6lgesi veya ABD\u2019deki oranlar\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla SNB\u2019nin bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir neden olu\u015fturmuyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131, d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ana belirleyici unsurlardan biri olmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin ana arac\u0131, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmeye y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmesi olmaya devam edecek. Bankan\u0131n, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n (CHF) de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in \u201cm\u00fcdahale etmeye y\u00f6nelik artan isteklili\u011fine\u201d dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ifadelerini yinelemesini bekliyoruz. Bu duru\u015f, \u00f6zellikle euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CHF\u2019nin de\u011ferine fiilen bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, frangda volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. CHF\u2019de, \u00f6zellikle euroya kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131nda (EUR\/CHF put opsiyonlar\u0131) f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyon, hem zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeden (theta) hem de SNB\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131k politikas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda frangda sert bir de\u011ferlenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak SNB, birinci \u00e7eyrekte 750 milyar CHF\u2019yi a\u015fan d\u00f6viz rezervleri biriktirecek \u00f6l\u00e7ekte b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahalelerle para birimi \u00fczerinde etkili olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cate\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d, frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatmaya y\u00f6nelik mevcut s\u00f6ylemlerini olduk\u00e7a inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda CHF\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralliye oynamaq, y\u00fcksek riskli ve olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir i\u015flem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik 18 Haziran: Nomura, SNB\u2019nin faizi %0,00\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken odak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinde; CHF\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 daha agresif duru\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48631\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}