Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerileyerek y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana elde etti\u011fi kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 sildi. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD), \u015fahin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) beklentileri ve teknik sat\u0131\u015flar talep \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Metal 4.023 dolara kadar inerek Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve son olarak 4.080 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015eubat sonundaki ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Ocak ay\u0131nda 5.600 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki zirvesinin neredeyse %27 alt\u0131nda. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD Dolar\u0131, tercih edilen savunma varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, faiz fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda beklenen en az iki indirimden ziyade bu y\u0131l bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskine do\u011fru kayd\u0131rd\u0131. ABD enflasyonu Ocak\u2019taki %2,4\u2019ten May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. May\u0131s \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5 artarak Nisan\u2019daki %5,7\u2019nin ve %6,4\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE ise %4,9\u2019da kalarak %5,4\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrederken RSI 26 civar\u0131nda ve MACD negatif; DXY 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Diren\u00e7ler 4.446,50 dolar, 4.593,71 dolar ve 4.774,23 dolarda; destekler 4.000 ve 3.900 dolarda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasa dinamikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131ndaki bask\u0131n trendin \u015fahin bir Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana stratejimiz, 4.000 dolar psikolojik seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyonlanmak olmal\u0131. Alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak da bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan do\u011frudan faydalanman\u0131n bir yolu.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkililerinden gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Fed Guvern\u00f6r\u00fc Waller, ge\u00e7en hafta enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde harekete ge\u00e7mesi\u201d gerekti\u011fini ifade etti; piyasalar bunu Temmuz ay\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret olarak yorumlad\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool, bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu, Ocak ay\u0131ndaki faiz indirimi beklentilerimize k\u0131yasla keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Bu agresif politika duru\u015fu, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) i\u00e7in cazibeyi giderek azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
CFTC\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son Commitment of Traders (COT) raporu da kurumsal oyuncular aras\u0131ndaki bu ay\u0131 e\u011filimini do\u011fruluyor. Ge\u00e7en Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler ve hedge fonlar\u0131n alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca son bir ayda %60\u2019tan fazla azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, 2024\u2019\u00fcn d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanmadaki en belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ederek \u201cak\u0131ll\u0131 para\u201dn\u0131n aktif bi\u00e7imde sat\u0131\u015fta oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde, 26 civar\u0131nda olsa da bunu bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u015fareti olarak de\u011fil, k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi potansiyeli olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama civar\u0131na, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.450 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler, daha iyi fiyattan yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Bu \u201cd\u00fc\u015fen b\u0131\u00e7a\u011f\u0131\u201d yakalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak uzun pozisyon \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve Brent petrol\u00fcn yak\u0131n zamanda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 135 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasada belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni volatilite, ay\u0131 put spread gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir put satarak, alt\u0131nda s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynarken riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Rehberlik i\u00e7in tarihe, \u00f6zellikle Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Paul Volcker d\u00f6nemindeki 1980\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131na bak\u0131labilir. O d\u00f6nemde kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon, agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla nihayet bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f; enflasyon ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta y\u00fcksek seyretse bile alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 sert \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut ortam, paran\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131ran merkez bankas\u0131 aksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak geleneksel cazibesinden \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturdu\u011fu benzer bir dinami\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: Alt\u0131n 6 ay\u0131n dibinde, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndaki kazan\u00e7lar silindi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve \u015fahin Fed beklentileri sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. Enflasyon\/\u00dcFE y\u00fckseliyor; teknikler zay\u0131f. 4.000-3.900 destek, 4.446 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48630\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}