ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) 5 Haziran\u2019da sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin verileri, do\u011fal gaz depolar\u0131nda 108 milyar fit k\u00fcpl\u00fck (Bcf) art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu rakam, 101 Bcf\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015farak s\u00f6z konusu raporlama d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha gev\u015fek k\u0131sa vadeli dengelere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
108 Bcf\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, 101 Bcf\u2019lik tahminle do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 7 Bcf\u2019lik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yarat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi, trader\u2019lar\u0131n yaz d\u00f6nemine girerken arz, talep ve stok patikalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirip de\u011ferlendirmeyece\u011fini belirleyecek \u015fekilde, gelecek EIA raporlar\u0131n\u0131n da konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00fczerinde gelmeye devam edip etmeyece\u011fine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin \u00fczerindeki 108 Bcf\u2019lik depolama enjeksiyonu, do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ay\u0131 sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu, arz\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda talebin \u00fczerinde, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha fazla seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu art\u0131\u015f, y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla zaten olduk\u00e7a rahat olan arz tamponunu daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Depolardaki toplam \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir gaz miktar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.915 Bcf seviyesinde; bu, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n 370 Bcf\u2019ten fazla \u00fczerinde ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n seviyelerinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Bu kayda de\u011fer fazlan\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat rallilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Haziran\u2019\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcncellenen hava durumu tahminlerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. NOAA\u2019n\u0131n mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, elektrik talebi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik b\u00f6lgeler olan Teksas ve Ortabat\u0131 genelinde ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131cakl\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131, klima kaynakl\u0131 do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketimini belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rabilir ve stok fazlas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde azaltmaya ba\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n
LNG ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve istikrarl\u0131 bir talep g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; feedgas teslimatlar\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13,5 Bcf civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel talep, ABD\u2019deki s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma tesislerinin neredeyse tam kapasiteye yak\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu da, fiyatlar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gerilemesini engelleyebilecek sa\u011flam bir talep taban\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t unsurlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki arz kaynakl\u0131 tavan etkisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; buna ek olarak, beklentiden serin bir yaz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla put al\u0131mlar\u0131 da g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nabilir. Bu piyasa, do\u011frudan y\u00f6nsel pozisyonlardan ziyade, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 opsiyon stratejileri i\u00e7in daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2022 yaz\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131caklar\u0131n piyasay\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla ya\u015fanan sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle, benzer bir s\u00fcrpriz senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 ucuz, vadesi daha uzun ve olduk\u00e7a \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call opsiyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mak ihtiyatl\u0131 bir hedge olabilir. Rahat g\u00f6r\u00fcnen arz ko\u015fullar\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febiliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Do\u011fal gazda s\u00fcrpriz gev\u015feme: EIA, 5 Haziran haftas\u0131nda depolara 108 Bcf enjeksiyonla 101 Bcf beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Stok fazlas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir; s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve LNG talebi dengeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48629\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}