{"id":48628,"date":"2026-06-11T20:09:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T20:09:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/birlesik-krallikta-isgucu-piyasasindaki-atil-kapasite-ve-gaz-fiyati-gorunumu-ingiltere-merkez-bankasini-yazin-tek-seferlik-faiz-artirimini-degerlendirmeye-itiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T20:09:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T20:09:52","slug":"birlesik-krallikta-isgucu-piyasasindaki-atil-kapasite-ve-gaz-fiyati-gorunumu-ingiltere-merkez-bankasini-yazin-tek-seferlik-faiz-artirimini-degerlendirmeye-itiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/birlesik-krallikta-isgucu-piyasasindaki-atil-kapasite-ve-gaz-fiyati-gorunumu-ingiltere-merkez-bankasini-yazin-tek-seferlik-faiz-artirimini-degerlendirmeye-itiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki at\u0131l kapasite ve gaz fiyat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yaz\u0131n tek seferlik faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye itiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ING\u2019den James Smith, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u015eirketler ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan fiyatlama ve pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Smith\u2019e g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), faizleri uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutmak ile sembolik bir hamle yapmak aras\u0131nda bir tercih yapmak zorunda. Ayr\u0131ca, olumlu seyreden do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor.<\/p>\n

ING\u2019nin g\u00fcncel enerji fiyat\u0131 baz senaryosu, temmuzda belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama varsay\u0131yor ve bu da beklentiyi yaz aylar\u0131nda tek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n en olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6ne kayd\u0131r\u0131yor. Smith, BoE\u2019nin aksi halde bu y\u0131l en az iki kez faiz indirimine gitme patikas\u0131nda oldu\u011funu; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yaln\u0131zca indirimlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nman\u0131n bile fiili bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini belirtiyor. Piyasalar\u0131n gelecek ilkbahara kadar iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ING\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ise yaz\u0131n olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u201ctek seferlik\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiltere \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131 Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Faizlere Etkileri<\/h3>\n

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de ekonomik arka plan\u0131n birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha yumu\u015fak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc say\u0131labilecek %5,5 seviyesinde olsa da so\u011fumaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, BoE\u2019yi faizleri uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutmak ile yaz aylar\u0131nda sembolik bir art\u0131\u015f yapmak aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fu anda term ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 peni civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadede harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Unutmay\u0131n: Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda beklenen indirimleri yapmamak bile politika duru\u015funu zaten daha s\u0131k\u0131 hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, gelecek ay yani Temmuz 2026\u2019da enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 izliyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda Banka\u2019n\u0131n yaz boyunca tek seferlik 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a zorla\u015f\u0131r. Bizce bu, enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na muhtemelen \u201ctek seferlik\u201d bir hamle olur.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131 ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz temel f\u0131rsat, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ile mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farkta. Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla 11 Haziran\u2019da SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri, 2027 ilkbahar\u0131na kadar en az iki tam faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Biz bunun Banka\u2019n\u0131n muhtemel patikas\u0131na g\u00f6re abart\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, Banka Faizi\u2019nin yaz\u0131n tek bir art\u0131\u015f ard\u0131ndan zirve yapmas\u0131 ve daha fazla y\u00fckselmemesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, faiz opsiyonlar\u0131na bakmay\u0131 veya 2027 ba\u015f\u0131 vadeli SONIA kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor; zira bu kontratlar \u015fu anda bizim \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden daha y\u00fcksek bir terminal faize i\u015faret ediyor. Bu strateji, a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn (\u015fu an 900 binin alt\u0131) ortaya koydu\u011fu temel ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, nihayetinde Banka\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: \u0130stihdam so\u011fuyor, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131z kesiyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re BoE, sabit faiz mi tek seferlik yaz zamm\u0131 m\u0131 aras\u0131nda. Piyasa iki art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48628"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48628\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}