Kanada dolar\u0131, daha zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve jeopolitik risklerin etkisiyle daha da geriledi; USD\/CAD paritesi, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) politika duyurusu civar\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 1,39 etraf\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131ktan sonra tutunamayarak y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6\u011fleden sonra ge\u00e7 saatlerde i\u015flemlerde CAD kay\u0131plar\u0131 yeniden h\u0131z kazand\u0131; piyasalar \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ilave ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarken, Ba\u015fkan Macklem\u2019in politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair temkinli tonu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyemedi.<\/p>\n
Gecelik i\u015flemlerde CAD sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 NOK\u2019u takip etti; Brent ve WTI fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi. Daha \u00f6nce n\u00f6trden ay\u0131ya d\u00f6nen, USD aleyhine sinyaller para birimine destek vermedi ve Mart zirvesi olan 1,3967\u2019nin \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m USD\/CAD\u2019i, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, 4\u00c7\u2019deki 1,40\u20131,41 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesini test etmeye uygun konuma getirdi. Destek 1,3900 seviyesinde i\u015faretlenirken, USD\u2019nin aral\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en iyi seviyesinde oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hisseler ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX ise CAD i\u00e7in olas\u0131 dengeleyiciler olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortamda, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cyaz\u0131-tura, her ko\u015fulda kaybeden\u201d bir konumda oldu\u011funu ve ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilave kay\u0131plara a\u00e7\u0131k hale geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CAD paritesi Mart zirvelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum sinyali verdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, 1,40-1,41 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hareketin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma.<\/p>\n
Loonie \u00fczerindeki ana bask\u0131 daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan geliyor. Temmuz vadeli WTI ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek, may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelere k\u0131yasla belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergiledi. Bu e\u011filim emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, CAD\u2019in Norve\u00e7 kronu ile e\u015f zamanl\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 16 seviyesinde kalsa bile, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131na destek olarak yans\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 10 Haziran\u2019daki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda sergiledi\u011fi temkinli ton. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son ayl\u0131k GSYH verisinin %0,1\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret etmesi ve enflasyonun %2 hedefinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyretmesi, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahinle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir motivasyon b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Enflasyona odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile s\u00fcren bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, dolar lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,4050 civar\u0131nda olan ve vadesi temmuz sonu veya a\u011fustos olan USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken riski y\u00f6netmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Dolar, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019ne (RSI) g\u00f6re teknik olarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde; bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak altta yatan trendin net bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu fiyat hareketi, 2024 sonunda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair benzer endi\u015felerin petrol ve CAD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz y\u00fckseli\u015f ataklar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. 1,3900 seviyesini kritik destek b\u00f6lgesi olarak kullanaca\u011f\u0131z. Bunun alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olursa de\u011ferlendirmemizi yeniden yapar\u0131z; ancak \u015fimdilik bu seviyeye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler CAD\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; USD\/CAD 1,3967\u2019yi a\u015farak y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. BoC\u2019nin temkinli tonu, 1,40\u20131,41 hedefini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}