EUR\/USD Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti ve piyasalar Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) son karar\u0131n\u0131 sindirirken, Orta Do\u011fu ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 zay\u0131flayan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla 1,1525 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ECB faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak Mevduat Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Faizi\u2019ni %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve yedi toplant\u0131l\u0131k aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan art\u0131\u015fa gitti; a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Eurosystem uzman projeksiyonlar\u0131, ortalama man\u015fet enflasyonun 2026\u2019da %3 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2027\u2019de %2,3\u2019e ve 2028\u2019de %2\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken; 2026 ve 2027 tahminlerinin Mart\u2019a k\u0131yasla yukar\u0131 revize edildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019daki ilk tepki s\u00f6n\u00fck kal\u0131rken, Dolar; yenilenen jeopolitik s\u00f6ylem ve 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde konsolide olan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nden destek buldu. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019de \u00fcretici enflasyonuna \u00e7evrildi: May\u0131s \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Nisan\u2019daki %5,7\u2019den %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve %6,4\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin hafif \u00fczerinde geldi; \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE ise %4,9\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek %5,4\u2019l\u00fck tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,0750 civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 dip seviyeler yak\u0131n\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatt\u0131 ve politika faizini %3,75\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi %5,25\u2019te sabit tutarak iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kilit \u00f6nemde olan farkl\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmleri yer al\u0131yor. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ait en g\u00fcncel ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verileri, enflasyonun %3,5 ile kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stererek Fed faiz indirimi beklentilerini daha ileri bir tarihe \u00f6t\u00fcyor. Bu durum, enflasyonun ECB\u2019nin gev\u015femeye ba\u015flamas\u0131na yetecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde so\u011fudu\u011fu Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik belirsizlik, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemeye devam ediyor. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kritik b\u00f6lgelerde s\u00fcregelen gerilimler piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 temkinli tutuyor. Bu arka plan Dolar i\u00e7in istikrarl\u0131 bir destek sa\u011flayarak EUR\/USD kurunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Euro\u2019da ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanman\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro\u2019da sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak ya da prim maliyetlerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d kurmak etkili bir strateji olabilir. Kritik destek seviyelerini izliyoruz; 1,0700\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na sarkma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, Fed ile ECB aras\u0131ndaki belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n EUR\/USD\u2019de kayda de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2014-2015 d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6ng\u00fcde ECB parasal geni\u015flemeye (QE) y\u00f6nelirken Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve parite %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti. Tarihsel \u00f6rnek, bu t\u00fcr politika farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 trendleri besleyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD iki ay\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n: ECB\u2019nin 25 bp ad\u0131m\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 revize enflasyon projeksiyonlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen Dolar ve y\u00fcksek \u00dcFE Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisini besliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48626\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}