Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldikten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi; ancak arz endi\u015feleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Rystad Energy, fiyatlar\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunarak, piyasan\u0131n kesintilere kar\u015f\u0131 hassasiyetini peki\u015ftirdi. ABD\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn dengeleri risk zeminini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; yar\u0131 mamul petrol stoklar\u0131 1997\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede ve bu k\u0131s\u0131t, rafinerilerin mevcut i\u015fleme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Stok verileri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019de ham petrol stoklar\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste yedi haftad\u0131r gerilerken, \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131 dokuz haftad\u0131r art arda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydediyor. Fiyatlamada, WTI alt\u0131 ay vadeli kontratlar 80,95 dolar seviyesinde; bu, May\u0131s\u2019taki 87,80 dolarl\u0131k zirvenin alt\u0131nda olsa da Mart ve Nisan boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen 75 dolar diplerinin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki yeniden alevlenen gerilimi \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira olas\u0131 bir kesinti petrol arz\u0131 \u00fczerinde an\u0131nda etki yaratabilir. Piyasa zaten s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k, bu da jeopolitik haberlere kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassas oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu tablo, yak\u0131n vadede daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlara y\u00f6nelik bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
En son Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu da bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit ederek, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 3,1 milyon varil daha azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi trendini uzat\u0131yor ve stoklar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemindeki be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutuyor. Yar\u0131 mamul petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 diplerde olmas\u0131, rafinerilerin yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi art\u0131r\u0131rken daha az tamponla hareket etmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
Talep taraf\u0131nda ise yava\u015flama i\u015fareti g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz; bu da daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 destekliyor. \u00c7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck verileri, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 11,5 milyon varille yeni bir rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel talep, k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle \u00e7arp\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alman\u0131n ihtiyatl\u0131 oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl vadeli WTI veya Brent\u2019te kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelden faydalanmak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir yol sunuyor. Petrol piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite %35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak artan belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, jeopolitik bir geli\u015fmenin t\u00fcm enerji kompleksini h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na benziyor. WTI vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 son zirvelerinin alt\u0131nda olsa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar ve jeopolitik riskin birle\u015fimi, piyasay\u0131 sert bir yukar\u0131 harekete a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, bir t\u00fcr yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma ya da spek\u00fclatif pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak yerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015fse de risk bitmedi: ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi, eriyen ABD stoklar\u0131 ve 1997\u2019den beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yar\u0131 mamul seviyeleri arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Rystad 150 dolar uyar\u0131yor; \u00c7in talebi rekor, volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48624\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}