Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizlerini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak ana refinansman faizini %2,40\u2019a y\u00fckseltti; marjinal bor\u00e7 verme faizi %2,65\u2019e, mevduat imk\u00e2n\u0131 faizi ise %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kurumun uzman tahminlerinde man\u015fet enflasyonun 2026\u2019da ortalama %3,0 olaca\u011f\u0131, 2027\u2019de %2,3\u2019e ve 2028\u2019de %2,0\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun 2026 ve 2027\u2019de %2,5, 2028\u2019de %2,2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edildi. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026\u2019da %0,8 olmas\u0131, 2027\u2019de %1,2\u2019ye ve 2028\u2019de %1,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. ECB ayr\u0131ca veriye ba\u011fl\u0131, toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yineleyerek faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nceden taahh\u00fctte bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Yetkililer, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin 2027\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonu %2\u2019nin \u00fczerine itebilece\u011fini, hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ise 2027 sonbahar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini ifade etti; uzun vadeli beklentilerin %2 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtildi. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik riskler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc, enflasyona y\u00f6nelik riskler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, ECB enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Eurosystem\u2019in vadesi gelen k\u0131ymetleri yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirmeyi durdurmas\u0131yla APP ve PEPP portf\u00f6yleri k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye devam ediyor; euro ise yatay seyretti ve EUR\/USD 1,1535 seviyesinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131flarken dahi enflasyonun birincil \u00f6ncelik oldu\u011funa dair net bir mesaj olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleri ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Bu gerilimin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisinin %3,2 ile gelmesi, ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu gerek\u00e7elendiriyor ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sadece enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p daha geni\u015f bir alana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi, enerji kaynakl\u0131 yeni fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bu da ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda yak\u0131n zamanda \u201cduraklama\u201d sinyali vermesini olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan HCOB Flash PMI gibi g\u00fcncel i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit etti; endeks de\u011ferleri 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalarak daralma b\u00f6lgesinde seyrediyor. Bu tablo, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fan bir resesyona ra\u011fmen politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022\u2019deki arka plan\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Yak\u0131n vadede ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin Avrupa varl\u0131klar\u0131na destek sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda 1,1535 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren EUR\/USD\u2019de, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc euronun potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 1,1670-1,1690 band\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen diren\u00e7 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiririz. Risk y\u00f6netimiyle birlikte a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak i\u00e7in put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi opsiyon stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda ise ECB\u2019nin veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 kalma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc, k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri gelecek enflasyon verilerine son derece duyarl\u0131 k\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinden gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyallerin, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri y\u00fckselirken uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerinin uzun vadeli tahvilleri bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla getiri e\u011frisini yataya yakla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ve on y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n daralmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskin y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve ECB\u2019nin belirsiz politika patikas\u0131 nedeniyle, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde destekli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Y\u00f6n se\u00e7mekten ziyade fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan stratejilerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro Stoxx 50 endeksi \u00fczerine opsiyonlar gibi enstr\u00fcmanlarla oynakl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131mak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda etkin bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB haziranda faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131: enflasyon tahminleri y\u00fcksek, enerji \u015foklar\u0131 riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f, veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 duru\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; EUR\/USD yatay, oynakl\u0131k ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48623"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48623\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}