Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB), haziran ay\u0131 politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131rken, imalat\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ve t\u00fcketimin b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ekonomiyi tarif etti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetler taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi\u011fi belirtilirken, AMB \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n net gelirinin yeniden pozitif b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6nmesini hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen bir unsur olarak g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar cephesinde AMB, enflasyonun tabana yay\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ile kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonun 2027 sonbahar\u0131nda hedefe d\u00f6nmesini bekleyen AMB, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, buna kar\u015f\u0131n uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin genel olarak hedefe yak\u0131n \u015fekilde \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemledi. Finansal istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise AMB, varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn risk olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik sinyal, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Enflasyonun 2027 sonbahar\u0131na kadar hedefe d\u00f6nmesi beklenmedi\u011finden, bu son 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 d\u00f6neminin par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle getiri e\u011frisinin bu yeni ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmas\u0131 muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alacak \u015fekilde konumlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015fahin duru\u015f, enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca enerji maliyetleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p daha geni\u015f bir alana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son verilerle gerek\u00e7elendiriliyor. 2026 1\u00c7 Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verisi inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %4,9 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu durum do\u011frudan hizmet enflasyonunu beslerken t\u00fcketimi de destekliyor. Bu tablo, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fudu\u011fu ve Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 bir duraklama sinyali verdi\u011fi ABD\u2019deki son verilerle tezat olu\u015fturuyor; ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Euro\u2019yu desteklemesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan alt\u0131nda, Avrupa hisse senedi de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. AMB\u2019nin varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f uyar\u0131s\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m niteli\u011finde. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak EURO STOXX 50 endeksi \u00fczerine sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Temel ekonomi \u015fimdilik dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; son HCOB Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u0130malat PMI verisi, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde kalarak 50,8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ancak bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, derin bir resesyonu tetikleme konusunda acil bir endi\u015fe olmaks\u0131z\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha fazla alan tan\u0131yor. Bu da t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin yak\u0131n bir ekonomik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften ziyade daha y\u00fcksek faizler ve artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
2022-2023 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlatan bu kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 zorlayacakt\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle de\u011fi\u015fken faizli borcu y\u00fcksek \u015firketlerde kredi spreadlerinin geni\u015flemesini bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, artan temerr\u00fct riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131 (CDS) endeksleri \u00fczerinden koruma sat\u0131n almak, ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok AMB! 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla faizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir. Enflasyon 2027\u2019de hedefe d\u00f6nerken \u00fccretler %4,9. Strateji: vadeli short, EURO STOXX 50 put, CDS korumas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48622\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}