TD Securities, yurt i\u00e7i verilerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen yumu\u015fama ve Federal B\u00fct\u00e7e\u2019deki vergi de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin ard\u0131ndan, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (cash rate) %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u201cuzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir bekleme\u201d (extended pause) sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fi olacak; bu duru\u015f g\u00fcvercin (dovish) olarak yorumlanacakt\u0131r. K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama (trimmed mean) enflasyonun bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fi belirtilirken, TD Securities \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (output gap) kapanmas\u0131na da i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Aktivite cephesinde, RBA\u2019n\u0131n modellerinin yak\u0131n vadede bir resesyon sinyali verme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu savunuluyor. NAB\u2019\u0131n kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131na do\u011fru gerileme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu; bunun da pozitif \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l RBA\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu (Statement on Monetary Policy) tahminlerindeki \u00e7eyreklik ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Dikkatler, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test edecek 24 Haziran\u2019daki May\u0131s T\u00dcFE (CPI) verisine \u00e7evriliyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Federal B\u00fct\u00e7e\u2019de negatif gearing ve sermaye kazanc\u0131 vergisine (capital gains tax) y\u00f6nelik de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yava\u015flatmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde yumu\u015fayan ekonomik veriler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,2\u2019ye kadar yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Piyasalar\u0131n ana oda\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k RBA\u2019n\u0131n uzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir bekleme sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fi olacak; bu durum g\u00fcvercin bir kayma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kanaatimiz zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve t\u00fcrev fiyatlamalar\u0131 da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor: Piyasalar \u015fu anda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15\u2019in alt\u0131na indiriyor; bu oran yaln\u0131zca bir ay \u00f6nce %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar, faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131ndan veya gerilemesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0307syonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k vadeli cash rate vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures) al\u0131m. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirmesi halinde de\u011fer kazanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
24 Haziran\u2019daki May\u0131s enflasyon verisi, oynakl\u0131k yaratabilecek bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r konumunda. Opsiyon piyasalar\u0131nda bu olay etraf\u0131nda i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine yaz\u0131lan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131. Bu strateji, enflasyon verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesi ve bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin Avustralya dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da net sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 var. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filiminden geri ad\u0131m atan bir merkez bankas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle di\u011fer k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015funu korurken, para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\u2019nin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma f\u0131rsat\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yava\u015flatmas\u0131 beklenen Federal B\u00fct\u00e7e\u2019nin vergi de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri, RBA\u2019n\u0131n politikay\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma aciliyetini ayr\u0131ca azalt\u0131yor. 24 Haziran\u2019daki enflasyon verisinin beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel risk olmaya devam ediyor. Bu tek veri noktas\u0131, uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u201csabit tutma\u201d senaryosunun en olas\u0131 patika olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmede kritik olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da m\u0131? TD Securities, yumu\u015fayan veriler ve b\u00fct\u00e7e kaynakl\u0131 vergi de\u011fi\u015fiklikleriyle RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi %4,35\u2019te sabit tutup \u201cuzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bekleme\u201d sinyali verece\u011fini; 24 Haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019nin belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}