Rusya\u2019n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 rezervleri 749,7 milyar dolara y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmdeki 748,7 milyar dolardan artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, d\u00f6nem boyunca toplam rezervleri 1,0 milyar dolar daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rezervlerdeki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n finansal pozisyonunun ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funun bir teyidi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; rezervler 749,7 milyar dolarla yeni bir rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu dev tampon, merkez bankas\u0131na rubleyi d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 savunmak i\u00e7in kayda de\u011fer bir hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle USD\/RUB paritesinde para-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak gibi, rublede istikrarl\u0131 ya da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyre oynayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu rezerv b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 2026 boyunca \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn bu y\u0131l varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesi ve deniz yoluyla petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 sayesinde, d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri h\u0131z kesmeden devam ediyor. Bu rezerv verisi, enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131n temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonumuzu t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7larla ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Finansal a\u00e7\u0131dan g\u00fcvenli bir Kremlin, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha iddial\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015f politikaya yol a\u00e7arak k\u00fcresel piyasalara belirsizlik enjekte edebilir. Tarihsel olarak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 pozisyonundan hareket etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2014 ve 2022\u2019de piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n keskin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu nedenle, daha geni\u015f piyasa istikrar\u0131n\u0131 bozabilecek ani jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma (hedge) olarak VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bi\u00e7imde al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rezerv seviyesi, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n egemen temerr\u00fct riskine ili\u015fkin alg\u0131y\u0131 da belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Rusya borcuna ili\u015fkin kredi temerr\u00fct takaslar\u0131 (CDS) zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil spreadleri Nisan 2026\u2019dan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan geriledi. Verilerin, piyasan\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n mevcut y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini kar\u015f\u0131lama kapasitesini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in, CDS korumas\u0131 satmakta bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n rezervleri 749,7 milyar dolarla rekor tazeledi: Rubleye kalkan, petrole destek! Y\u00fcksek enerji gelirleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ruble t\u00fcrevleri, uzun Brent, VIX hedge ve CDS\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma izliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48618\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}