Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 Nisan\u2019da 11,431 milyar dolara gerileyerek \u00f6nceki 13,966 milyar dolar seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ayl\u0131k bazda daha zay\u0131f bir d\u0131\u015f dengeye i\u015faret ederken; man\u015fet fazla, ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131na ve ihracat gelirleri ile ithalat harcamalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farka dair bir anl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Rakamlarla birlikte herhangi bir ilave k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131 ve bu nedenle de\u011fi\u015fimin itici unsurlar\u0131 netle\u015fmedi. Bununla birlikte, standart d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi muhasebesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fazla; daha zay\u0131f ihracat, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat ya da her ikisinin birle\u015fimine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n Nisan\u2019da 11,431 milyar dolara gerilemesi bizim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00fclkeye giren d\u00f6viz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da genellikle yerel para birimi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde Rus Rublesi\u2019nde olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
USD\/RUB kuruna ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri inceliyoruz; kur, son d\u00f6nemdeki 90-95 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 test ediyor. 95\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yeni bir trende i\u015faret edebilir; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun USD\/RUB al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) veya vadeli kontratlar\u0131 cazip hale getirir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini y\u00fcksek %15 seviyesinde tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen; bu ad\u0131m\u0131n kuru destekleme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131fl\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle de uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Bu ticaret zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki son yumu\u015famayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6rne\u011fin Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 son bir ayda 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 82 dolara geriledi; bu da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n temel ihracat geliri kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin Ruble\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede petrol fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131, bir hedge veya tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 bir i\u015flem olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Ruble\u2019nin de\u011feri petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc korelasyon sergiledi; ancak 2022\u2019den bu yana uygulanan sermaye kontrolleri bu ili\u015fkiyi karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131ndaki son gerileme, Bat\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik y\u00f6ntemlerin daha az etkili hale geldi\u011fine veya maliyetinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Bunu, temel ekonomik bask\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kur y\u00f6netimi ara\u00e7lar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha bask\u0131n hale gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zili: Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 Nisan\u2019da 11,431 milyar dolara indi. D\u00f6viz giri\u015fi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, ruble bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. USD\/RUB 95 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa yeni trend; petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riski art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49806,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48617\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}