ABD\u2019de g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 \u00dcFE (\u00c7ekirdek \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi) may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,9 artt\u0131. Veri, piyasa beklentisi olan %5,4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalarak, d\u00f6nem boyunca \u00e7ekirdek maliyet kanal\u0131nda daha yava\u015f fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelen may\u0131s verisi, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki temel bask\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclene k\u0131yasla bir miktar hafifledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. A\u00e7\u0131klama, daha oynak g\u0131da ve enerji kalemleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki enflasyon dinamiklerini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in yeni bir referans noktas\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen \u00dcFE\u2019yi, enflasyonun toptan fiyatlar seviyesinde gev\u015fedi\u011fine dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Piyasalar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fu, bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ara verilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in olumlu. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentileri bu \u015firketlerin de\u011ferlemelerini destekledi\u011finden, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Nasdaq 100 endeksi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon beklentileri, takip eden alt\u0131 ila sekiz haftada Nasdaq\u2019ta \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %5-7\u2019lik bir ralliye zemin haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00fcncelliyoruz. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyreklerine ili\u015fkin SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; zira daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir terminal faiz oran\u0131 beklentisiyle yeniden fiyatlanmalar\u0131 muhtemel. CME FedWatch Tool, temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7en hafta %40 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Daha az \u015fahin bir Fed, genellikle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) son d\u00f6nemde gelen mesajlar\u0131n kendi enflasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 dizginlemeye odakl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla birlikte, EUR\/USD vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinden euroda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 izliyoruz. 1,0950 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu yumu\u015fak enflasyon verisi, z\u0131mni piyasa volatilitesinde de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) bu haberle birlikte 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na geriledi ve yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE verileri bu dezenflasyonist e\u011filimi teyit ederse 12 seviyesinin test edilebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n haberi sakin bi\u00e7imde sindirmesi halinde, k\u0131sa straddle gibi volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejileri veya istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisselerde (large-cap) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE may\u0131sta %4,9\u2019la beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r; %5,4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 gev\u015fiyor: Fed\u2019in pas ge\u00e7mesi, Nasdaq\u2019ta ralli, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, VIX\u2019te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kap\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48613\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}