Societe Generale stratejistleri, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik son ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tahvil piyasas\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; e\u011fri genelinde fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131, getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itti\u011fini ve hareketin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k vadede g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00e7ekti\u011fini belirtiyor. Cuma\u2019dan Sal\u0131\u2019ya kadar g\u00f6sterge getiriler yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 baz puan gerilerken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri giri\u015flerin iyile\u015fmesiyle neredeyse 30 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yabanc\u0131 bankalar 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda Hindistan devlet tahvili net al\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna paralel olarak Hindistan bankalar\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k USD mevduatlarda %6 ile %7,1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faiz sunuyor; bu yap\u0131 2013\u2019te 34 milyar dolar \u00e7eken swap penceresine benzetiliyor. Fiyatlama, enflasyon ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olsa da bu tedbirler devreye girdik\u00e7e piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirenin faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 veya do\u011frudan FX m\u00fcdahalesi de\u011fil, dolar giri\u015flerini te\u015fvik eden bir duru\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik son tedbirlerinin \u015fimdiden etkisini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hindistan devlet tahvili getirileri geriliyor; g\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri bu hafta %7\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerek %6,95\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Nisan\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez bu seviyeler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu, bor\u00e7 piyasas\u0131na yeniden canlanan yabanc\u0131 ilginin do\u011frudan bir sonucu.<\/p>\n
Veriler, yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Haziran 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana devlet i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma senetlerine 2,5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kaynak aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu sermaye giri\u015fi, \u00f6zellikle orta vadeli segmentlerde getiriler \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu da politikan\u0131n hedeflenen etkiyi \u00fcretti\u011fine dair net bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin, do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi ya da agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yerine dolar giri\u015flerini \u00e7ekmeyi \u00f6nceleyen politikalar\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz rezervleri rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k 655 milyar dolar ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, bu tercih stratejik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, o d\u00f6nemde piyasalar\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturan ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 2013 swap penceresi uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, faiz swaplar\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlara i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut ortamda sabit faiz almak ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demek pozisyonunu cazip buluyoruz. Bu giri\u015fler s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, sabit oranlar \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bu pozisyonlar\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Kur cephesinde ise dolar arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, USD\/INR paritesinde anlaml\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; parite 84,50 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Azalan oynakl\u0131k, USD\/INR\u2019de out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 daha cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. Toplanan prim bir tampon sa\u011flarken, temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de rupide sert bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riskini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBI\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 sermaye hamlesi tahvilleri u\u00e7urdu: e\u011fri genelinde getiriler d\u00fc\u015ferken 5 y\u0131ll\u0131kta 30 bp gerileme \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yabanc\u0131lar 2 milyar $ ald\u0131; USD giri\u015fleri kur bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48608"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48608\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}