ABD dolar\u0131, Brown Brothers Harriman\u2019\u0131n (BBH) son ABD verilerini dezenflasyonun duraklamas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in %2 hedefiyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan kalan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Notta, ABD\u2019de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebinin iyile\u015fmesine Fed\u2019in daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politika duru\u015funun e\u015flik etti\u011fi vurgulan\u0131rken, piyasalar\u0131n gelen \u201cenflasyon boru hatt\u0131\u201d g\u00f6stergelerine yeniden odaklanmas\u0131yla dolar\u0131n kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verileri, dezenflasyon e\u011filiminin ivme kaybetti\u011fine kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6sterildi: man\u015fet enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayl\u0131k bazda \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %0,4\u2019ten %0,2\u2019ye gerilerken, beklentilerin 0,1 puan alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Dikkatler, Londra saatiyle 13:30\u2019da (New York 08:30) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s \u00dcFE\u2019ye \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; \u00f6zellikle \u201cTicaret, Ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve Depolama hari\u00e7 \u00dcFE Hizmetler\u201d kalemi ve bunun \u201ckonut hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek hizmetler PCE\u201d ile ili\u015fkisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca konut hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek hizmetler T\u00dcFE, Atlanta Fed \u201csticky\u201d T\u00dcFE ve Cleveland Fed budanm\u0131\u015f ortalama ile medyan T\u00dcFE gibi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctler de izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kademeli olarak de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Son May\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporu enflasyonun %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, temel\/alt k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlardaki g\u00f6stergeler de Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinden daha da uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu tablo, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc (call) opsiyon stratejilerini ya da EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmay\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor: May\u0131s istihdam raporu 245 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, Fed\u2019in daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fine sinyal veriyor ve y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin anlaml\u0131 faiz indirimi beklentileri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15\u2019e kadar indirirken, bu oran sadece bir ay \u00f6nce %50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bile\u015fimi, tarihsel olarak hisse senetleri i\u00e7in genellikle ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle trader\u2019lar\u0131n, olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla S&P 500 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak gibi defansif pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu hacminde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi de, piyasan\u0131n yakla\u015fan makro veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha y\u00fcksek volatiliteyi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun Fed\u2019i agresif kalmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dolarda belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde piyasalar, enflasyon net bi\u00e7imde kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nana kadar Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sistematik bi\u00e7imde hafife alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benzer bir dinami\u011fin \u015fimdi yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da faiz duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek enstr\u00fcmanlarda f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 dinmiyor: BBH, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdamla Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. T\u00dcFE %4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00dcFE\/PCE izlemede. DXY al\u0131m, EUR\/USD put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; S&P500\u2019de korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}