Piyasalar \u015fahin bir ECB karar\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; para piyasas\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131na mevduat faizinin 25bp art\u0131r\u0131larak %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 zaten yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar ilave 25bp daha fiyatlan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 75bp\u2019lik bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor; bu patika stagflasyonist bir \u015fok senaryosu \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Temmuz i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca 8bp fiyatlanmas\u0131, yeni bir y\u00f6nlendirme olmadan ek yeniden fiyatlama i\u00e7in daha az alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda bu arka plan, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR swap faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin tek para birimini destekleme kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. FX cephesinde EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1565\/75 b\u00f6lgesinde diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131, ABD \u00dcFE verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi halinde paritenin 1,1500\u2019e do\u011fru k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2,25% seviyesine 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131k teyit edilmi\u015fken, piyasan\u0131n bunu halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Para piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l boyunca toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu agresif fiyatlama, Euro\u2019da ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenme i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bir e\u015fik olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kurgu alt\u0131nda EUR\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 potansiyelin 1,1565\/75 diren\u00e7 seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 potansiyelden yararlanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 veya ay\u0131 (bear) call spread stratejileri uygulamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Olay riskinin geride kalmas\u0131yla ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi muhtemel; bu da opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk artm\u0131\u015f durumda; \u00f6zellikle de son ABD verilerinin May\u0131s\u2019ta \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (\u00dcFE) beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %0,5 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan. Bu, dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor ve EUR\/USD paritesini 1,1500 seviyesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00f6yle bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak makul bir hedge olabilir.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrini korurken, May\u0131s i\u00e7in %2,8 olarak raporland\u0131; ancak bu tablo ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclere benziyor. Tarihsel olarak, politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n zirvesi piyasa taraf\u0131ndan tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, para birimi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha fazla de\u011fer kazanmakta zorlan\u0131r. Mevcut \u015fahinli\u011fi Euro duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir \u201czirve\u201d (high-water mark) olarak ele al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %2,25\u2019e zaten fiyatland\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e ek 25bp, 2026 ba\u015f\u0131na 75bp beklentisi Euro\u2019yu s\u0131n\u0131rlar. EUR\/USD 1,1565\/75 diren\u00e7, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD \u00dcFE\u2019de 1,1500 riski; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48605\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}