{"id":48604,"date":"2026-06-11T13:34:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:34:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rupi-abd-iran-gerilimiyle-petrolun-yukselmesi-sonrasi-zayif-acildi-usd-inr-tufe-oncesinde-9575e-yakin\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T13:34:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:34:43","slug":"rupi-abd-iran-gerilimiyle-petrolun-yukselmesi-sonrasi-zayif-acildi-usd-inr-tufe-oncesinde-9575e-yakin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupi-abd-iran-gerilimiyle-petrolun-yukselmesi-sonrasi-zayif-acildi-usd-inr-tufe-oncesinde-9575e-yakin\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckselmesi sonras\u0131 zay\u0131f a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; USD\/INR, T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde 95,75\u2019e yak\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rupi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta USD\/INR\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,75\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Yeni bir endi\u015fe dalgas\u0131 yaratan ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin bozulabilece\u011fi ihtimali sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi pariteyi yukar\u0131 itti. Sabah i\u015flemlerinde, MCX Ham Petrol 18 Haziran vadeli kontrat\u0131 %0,7 art\u0131\u015fla 8.787 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ise \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131 telafi ettikten sonra %3,6 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Hindistan dahil ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomilerde para birimlerine y\u00f6nelik deste\u011fi zay\u0131flatma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n

ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirilen ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00c7ar\u015famba gecesi \u0130ran\u2019daki birden fazla hedefe ek \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131\u201d d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak The Wall Street Journal, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n yard\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na Katar \u00fczerinden iletilmek \u00fczere sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n \u201ctopyek\u00fbn sava\u015f\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131\u201d anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Bu arka planda, Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII) Haziran\u2019da \u015fimdiye kadarki her i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunda; toplam \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 62.654,34 crore rupi oldu. Yurti\u00e7inde ise odak Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi; y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun Nisan\u2019daki %3,48\u2019e k\u0131yasla %4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. RBI, ge\u00e7en hafta repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Etkenleri ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

USD\/INR paritesi 95,75 seviyesini test ederken, Hindistan Rupisi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Ana etken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama; Brent petrol, t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle yak\u0131n zamanda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu durum cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Haziran ay\u0131nda \u015fimdiye kadar 62.600 crore rupiyi a\u015fan Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, Hindistan varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ay\u0131 e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. Bu t\u00fcr kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz \u00fczere, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman rupide ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olur. Bu nedenle vadeli i\u015flemler veya opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden rupi uzun pozisyonu almada temkinliyiz.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejisi ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE verisi, i\u015flem yap\u0131labilecek k\u0131sa vadeli bir volatilite olay\u0131 sunuyor. Enflasyonun beklenen %4\u2019\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde gelmesi, RBI\u2019dan daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fu tetikleyerek USD\/INR\u2019de ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7abilir. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle gibi k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bir sonraki yukar\u0131 hareketin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Paritenin 96,03 diren\u00e7 seviyesini net \u015fekilde k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya uzun vadeli kontratlar ile al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon arayaca\u011f\u0131z. Geni\u015f temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 95,50 civar\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezli\u011fi nedeniyle, dolar cinsinden \u00f6deme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olan her m\u00fc\u015fteri i\u00e7in korunma (hedge) kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130thalat\u00e7\u0131lara vadeli kur seviyelerini sabitlemelerini veya USD\/INR paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in call spread gibi opsiyon stratejileri kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu ortamda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ani bir yumu\u015famaya bel ba\u011flamak uygulanabilir bir strateji de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 rupiyi vurdu: USD\/INR 95,75\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fi\u015firirken FII\u2019lar Haziran\u2019da 62.654 crore rupi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. G\u00f6zler Cuma T\u00dcFE\u2019de; 96,03 kritik diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48604\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}