Rupi, Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda gerileyerek USD\/INR paritesini 95,75 civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Erken i\u015flemlerde MCX Ham Petrol 18 Haziran vadeli kontrat\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirerek %3,6 y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan %0,7 art\u0131\u015fla 8.787 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu hareket, ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine ili\u015fkin yeniden artan endi\u015felerin ard\u0131ndan geldi ve dolar-rupi paritesini yukar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye ait bir Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 takiben, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201chaks\u0131z ve s\u00fcregelen sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi eylemler sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7ok say\u0131da hedefe ilave \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131\u201d d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), Haziran\u2019da \u015fu ana kadarki her i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunda; toplam \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 62.654,34 crore rupi oldu. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisini bekliyor; beklentiler, Nisan\u2019daki %3,48\u2019in ard\u0131ndan y\u0131ll\u0131k %4\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. RBI, ge\u00e7en hafta repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131na (EMA) yak\u0131n 95,4886 seviyesinde seyrederken RSI 53,79\u2019da; diren\u00e7 96,03 ard\u0131ndan 97,08\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken destek 95,49 ve 94,77 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Rupisi \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum USD\/INR paritesini 95,75 seviyelerine itiyor. Bunun ana nedeni, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden y\u00fckselen gerilimin do\u011frudan sonucu olan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131 ortam\u0131, tarihsel olarak Rupiyi zay\u0131flat\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Hindistan, talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan risk hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Brent petrol\u00fcn yak\u0131n zamanda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131yla, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. 2022\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Ukrayna\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki benzer bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, Rupinin y\u0131l i\u00e7inde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %10\u2019dan fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (FII) devam eden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, para birimi \u00fczerinde ilave bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 katman\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Haziran\u2019\u0131n ilk b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 62.000 crore rupinin \u00fczerindeki net sat\u0131\u015f kayda de\u011fer; bu tutar, 2024\u2019te se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, FII\u2019lar\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden dolara \u00e7evirmesiyle Rupiyi do\u011frudan zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; beklenti %4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu tahminin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde bir okuma, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; zira RBI\u2019nin yayg\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 do\u011frultusunda ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fckseltir. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 genellikle Rupi i\u00e7in olumlu olsa da, mevcut ortamda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerini de tetikleyerek karma bir reaksiyon olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev stratejilerin daha fazla Rupi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle 96,50 ve 97,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 civar\u0131nda USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131n bir yolunu sunuyor. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin zamanlamas\u0131ndaki belirsizlik nedeniyle, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n do\u011frudan uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures) kontrat\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya k\u0131yasla daha temkinli oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu de\u011ferlendirmeyi destekliyor; USD\/INR paritesi bir sonraki hamlesi \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\/konsolidasyon sergiliyor. 96,03 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kapan\u0131\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin devam\u0131na i\u015faret eder; bir sonraki mant\u0131kl\u0131 hedef, 97,08 civar\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesi olur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 95,49\u2019daki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019y\u0131 izlenmesi gereken kilit k\u0131sa vadeli destek seviyesi olarak kullanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku rupiyi vurdu: USD\/INR 95,75\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. \u0130ran gerilimiyle ham petrol y\u00fckselirken FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 62.654 crore\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019de; diren\u00e7 96,03\/97,08, destek 95,49.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48599\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}