Alt\u0131n, erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti ve Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f kal\u0131rken, bu durum k\u0131ymetli metale bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, \u015fahin bir Fed beklentisi ve ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda yeniden alevlenen gerilimler y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve Greenback\u2019e daha sa\u011flam bir zemin sundu. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni sinyaller i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (\u00dcFE) kayarken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelerin fiyatlamay\u0131 dalgal\u0131 tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Veri taraf\u0131nda, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE may\u0131sta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4\u2019ten %0,2\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE ise nisan ay\u0131ndaki %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131; art\u0131\u015fta enerji maliyetlerindeki %23,5\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f etkili oldu. \u0130ran, yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu geli\u015fme petrol\u00fcn iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken enflasyon endi\u015felerini de art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131na inilmesi ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kanal e\u011filimi negatifte tutuyor; \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler 4.257,39 dolar, 4.446,37 dolar ve 4.572,06 dolar olarak belirtilirken, MACD negatifte kal\u0131yor ve RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki mevcut s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131, ger\u00e7ek bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften ziyade sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Daha yumu\u015fak gelen \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama sa\u011fl\u0131yor, ancak \u015fahin bir Federal Rezerv ve y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri metal i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Fed\u2019in enflasyona verece\u011fi tepkiye kilitlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in alt\u0131n daha az cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yarak bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in bir darbo\u011faz niteli\u011findeki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, Fed\u2019i \u015fahin patikada tutmas\u0131 muhtemel ciddi bir enflasyonist tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Jeopolitik gerilim zaman zaman alt\u0131na \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi getirebilse de, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve k\u0131ymetli metal \u00fczerinde daha a\u011f\u0131r bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu dinami\u011fi daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemindeki agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde alt\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde daha y\u00fcksek faizler, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalar bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %70 olas\u0131l\u0131k verirken, tarihin tekerr\u00fcr edebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha ileri bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayarak put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken ani bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sert ve beklenmedik bir ralli tetiklemesi halinde potansiyel zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. RSI son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etse de, derin negatif teknik g\u00f6stergeler bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
4.250 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeler, yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. Alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelinin ciddi \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fczden faydalanmak ve gelir elde etmek i\u00e7in call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da etkili bir strateji olabilir. Yakla\u015fan ABD \u00dcFE verisini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; y\u00fcksek bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda \u201cdip mi, tuzak m\u0131?\u201d 4.100 dolarda zay\u0131f toparlanma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE dolar\u0131 gev\u015fetse de \u015fahin Fed, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve y\u00fckselen enerji enflasyonu bask\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ABD \u00dcFE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}