\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fczgan eyaletindeki Sirik il\u00e7esi kaymakam\u0131, Mehr News\u2019e g\u00f6re Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir ABD m\u00fchimmat\u0131n\u0131n bir y\u00fck gemisine isabet etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Haberde, yoldan ge\u00e7en gemiler taraf\u0131ndan be\u015f m\u00fcrettebat\u0131n kurtar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Umman\u2019a g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ilk etapta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi. Haber yay\u0131l\u0131rken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tonu sabit seyretti; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,95 seviyesinde ve %0,1 eksideydi. E\u015flik eden risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u201crisk-on\u201d ile \u201crisk-off\u201d ayr\u0131m\u0131 yapar: ilki durumunda hisseler, Alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011fu emtia, emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimleri ve Kripto Paralar genellikle y\u00fckselir; ikincisinde ise talep tipik olarak Tahvillere, Alt\u0131n\u2019a ve ABD Dolar\u0131, Japon Yeni ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerine kayar.<\/p>\n
Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir geminin ABD m\u00fchimmat\u0131yla vuruldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin haberi, piyasa belirsizli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu olay, kritik bir k\u00fcresel dar bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek jeopolitik riski art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130lk tepkilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; ancak biz bunu potansiyel volatiliteye y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan etki enerji piyasalar\u0131nda olur; zira H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2ht\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgede 2019\u2019daki tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi, Brent petrol bir g\u00fcnde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. WTI \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, 90-95 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr bir geli\u015fme genellikle \u201crisk-off\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma talebini art\u0131r\u0131r. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) \u015fu anda 15 ile g\u00f6rece sakin bir seviyede; belirsizlik b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e sert y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir hisse piyasas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan ve etkili bir hedge olarak VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri veya al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerinde, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n Japon Yeni ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerini desteklemesini bekliyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki anl\u0131k s\u00fck\u00fbnet yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma hareketi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Yen\u2019in Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7ar. Bu nedenle, USD\/JPY paritesinin mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131k 145 seviyesinden gerilemesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Klasik g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan Alt\u0131n da artan jeopolitik gerilimden destek bulabilir. Son d\u00f6nemde yatay-dalgal\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergileyen metalde, bu olay anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olu\u015fturabilir. Bu potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc f\u0131rsata maruz kalmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir se\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde ABD m\u00fchimmat\u0131 y\u00fck gemisini vurdu: 5 m\u00fcrettebat kurtar\u0131ld\u0131. Piyasalar sakin kalsa da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski petrol\u00fc 90-95 dolara, VIX\u2019i yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; alt\u0131n, yen, frank desteklenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}