Commerzbank, ECB\u2019nin aylard\u0131r ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesini bekliyor; ancak bu hamlenin halihaz\u0131rda EUR\/USD\u2019ye fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve euronun k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bankaya g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 kez faiz art\u0131rabilecek olsa bile, bir dizi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131m\u0131na \u00f6nceden taahh\u00fctte bulunmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fil ve e\u015flik eden ileti\u015fim de faiz beklentilerini daha yukar\u0131 itmeyebilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131 dinamikleri son haftalarda gev\u015fedi; fiyatlar zirveyi geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, son enflasyon verileri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda geldi ve enflasyon beklentileri bir miktar geriledi. Bu arka planda de\u011ferlendirme, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha \u015fahin bir ECB duru\u015funun olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor; bu da euro i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli risklerin ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde e\u011fik kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Commerzbank, EUR\/USD\u2019de yaln\u0131zca kademeli bir toparlanma \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye devam ediyor ve ay sonu i\u00e7in 1,16 hedefini koruyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira piyasa Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) temkinli duru\u015funu tamamen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. ECB, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca %0,2 artmas\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclen zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle m\u00fccadele ederken, ABD ekonomisi daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, Euro\u2019daki belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde son enflasyon verisi %2,3 ile hedefin bir miktar \u00fczerinde kalsa da, daha agresif ya da daha \u015fahin bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimini zorlayacak kadar y\u00fcksek de\u011fil. ECB yetkililerinin veri ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamas\u0131 ve gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin taahh\u00fctte bulunmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da Euro al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasa beklentilerine zaten yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Gev\u015feyen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 da ECB\u2019ye sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmak i\u00e7in alan tan\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanmas\u0131 ve yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem zirvelerinden geri gelmesiyle, man\u015fet enflasyon \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyon beklentileri \u0131l\u0131mlan\u0131yor ve merkez bankas\u0131ndan s\u00fcrpriz bir \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimali olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, bant hareketinden faydalanan ya da EUR\/USD\u2019de kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye oynayan stratejilerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ECB\u2019nin uzayan bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret etmesi halinde Euro opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite gerileyebilir; bu da \u00f6rne\u011fin vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri potansiyel olarak cazip k\u0131labilir. Paritede risklerin yak\u0131n vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015fe yapar m\u0131? Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re ECB\u2019nin ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatland\u0131; Lagarde\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin taahh\u00fct vermesi zor. Gev\u015feyen petrol\/enflasyon euroyu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; EUR\/USD\u2019de riskler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, hedef 1,16.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48591\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}