Apollo\u2019nun John Zito\u2019su, Morgan Stanley ABD Finansallar Konferans\u0131\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, token bazl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerin i\u015f de\u011ferini de\u011fil i\u015flem hacmini (throughput) takip etti\u011fi i\u00e7in yapay zek\u00e2 ekonomisini yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Zito\u2019nun de\u011ferlendirmesi, token\u2019lar\u0131 verimlili\u011fin g\u00f6stergesi olmaktan \u00e7ok bir yan \u00fcr\u00fcn olarak konumluyor ve oda\u011f\u0131 \u201cfaydal\u0131 zek\u00e2\u201dn\u0131n birim maliyetine kayd\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, man\u015fet anlat\u0131lar token say\u0131lar\u0131na odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n geriledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck birim maliyetler otomatik olarak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck harcamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor: Kullan\u0131mdaki s\u0131\u00e7rama toplam faturalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir ve CFO\u2019lar\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6neti\u015fime itebilir. \u015eirketler \u201c\u00fccretsiz a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcfe\u201d d\u00f6neminden uzakla\u015farak limitler, uyar\u0131lar, model y\u00f6nlendirme ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 maliyet kontrollerine ge\u00e7iyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131m geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn (ROI) net oldu\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131r (frontier) modellerde primli fiyatlaman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli i\u015flerin ise daha ucuz se\u00e7eneklere kaymas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha geni\u015f AI temas\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir; ancak piyasalar, ger\u00e7ek zek\u00e2 kald\u0131ra\u00e7 etkisini kontrols\u00fcz i\u015flem g\u00fcc\u00fc (compute) t\u00fcketimi kaynakl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlardan ay\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011ferleme \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 mercek alt\u0131na giriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, AI hik\u00e2yesinin basit bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlat\u0131s\u0131ndan verimlilik anlat\u0131s\u0131na evrilmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kavrad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. AI harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan bir tren oldu\u011fu fikri sorgulan\u0131yor; zira \u015firketler art\u0131k bu harcamalar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne odaklan\u0131yor. Bu da AI ile ilgili her \u015feyin ayr\u0131m g\u00f6zetmeden sat\u0131n al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim verilerde \u015fimdiden g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck bulut sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n son 1\u00c7 2026 finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, toplam AI t\u00fcketimi artarken en pahal\u0131, frontier-model API\u2019lerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %60\u2019tan %45\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, platformlar\u0131ndaki daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, a\u00e7\u0131k kaynak modellerin kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 kattan fazla artt\u0131; bu da m\u00fc\u015fterilerin kritik olmayan i\u015fler i\u00e7in aktif bi\u00e7imde daha ucuz alternatifler arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck AI altyap\u0131 oyuncular\u0131 i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131kta belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. NVIDIA gibi bir isim i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan Temmuz 2026 bilan\u00e7osu kritik bir test olacak; \u015firketlerdeki bu verimlilik oda\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00f6nlendirmede (guidance) olas\u0131 bir revizyon riskini opsiyon piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz. Bu rapor \u00f6ncesinde straddle veya strangle almak, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu paterni daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6zellikle 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda piyasa \u201ceyeballs\u201d (g\u00f6z say\u0131s\u0131\/t\u0131klanma) odakl\u0131 de\u011ferlemeden ger\u00e7ek k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k\/gelir odakl\u0131 de\u011ferlemeye kayarken. Faydal\u0131 zek\u00e2n\u0131n birim maliyeti, Moore Yasas\u0131\u2019na benzer bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; ancak piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015firketleri satt\u0131klar\u0131 ham i\u015flem g\u00fcc\u00fc hacmine g\u00f6re \u00f6d\u00fcllendiriyor. Yak\u0131n tarihli bir analiz, karma\u015f\u0131k bir kodlama sorgusunun maliyetinin son 18 ayda %90\u2019dan fazla geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ham i\u015flem g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc primli fiyatla satan \u015firketler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dezenflasyonist r\u00fczg\u00e2r anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ikili i\u015flem (pair trade) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. AI maliyet y\u00f6netimi ve verimlili\u011fi i\u00e7in \u201ckazma-k\u00fcrek\u201d sa\u011flayan \u015firketlerde uzun (long) pozisyon almay\u0131; yakla\u015fan marj s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tmayan \u00e7arpanlarla i\u015flem g\u00f6ren saf compute sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131nda ise k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin ServiceNow\u2019un ge\u00e7en ay yeni bir AI maliyet kontrol platformu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, kurumsal denetimin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu yeni fazdan fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrden bir \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015f piyasa ise y\u00fczeyin alt\u0131ndaki bu temel de\u011fi\u015fimlere ra\u011fmen kay\u0131ts\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; VIX 14 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyrediyor. Bu da korunma (hedge) stratejilerinin g\u00f6rece ucuz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Pahal\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraf modelleri \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine g\u00f6men ve y\u00fcksek \u00e7arpanlarla y\u00fckselen AI yaz\u0131l\u0131m \u015firketlerinden olu\u015fan sepetlerde put opsiyonu alman\u0131n, yakla\u015fan \u201cAI \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 denetimi\u201dne pozisyon almak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir yol oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Token say\u0131lar\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fclenen piyasaya uyar\u0131: Apollo\u2019dan Zito, metriklerin i\u015f de\u011ferini de\u011fil hacmi \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. AI birim maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; harcama patlayabilir, CFO freni gelir, \u00e7arpanlar sorgulan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48589\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}