{"id":48585,"date":"2026-06-11T09:05:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T09:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rbanin-sahin-durusu-aud-jpyyi-hafif-yukari-iterken-japonyanin-mudahale-riski-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T09:05:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T09:05:23","slug":"rbanin-sahin-durusu-aud-jpyyi-hafif-yukari-iterken-japonyanin-mudahale-riski-yukselisi-sinirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rbanin-sahin-durusu-aud-jpyyi-hafif-yukari-iterken-japonyanin-mudahale-riski-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu AUD\/JPY\u2019yi hafif yukar\u0131 iterken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/JPY, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u015fahin duru\u015funun Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 112,40\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Macquarie, RBA\u2019n\u0131n gelecek hafta politika faizini (Official Cash Rate) de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak A\u011fustos\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutacak \u015fekilde sinyal vermesini bekliyor. Ancak kazan\u00e7lar, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dizginlemek i\u00e7in devreye girebilece\u011fine dair endi\u015felerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin spek\u00fclatif hareketleri izledi\u011fi ve gerekti\u011finde harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; fiyat 112,26\u2019daki Bollinger alt band\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI-14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 39 seviyesinde ve y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi yap\u0131s\u0131 korunurken dahi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret ediyor. Yukar\u0131da ilk diren\u00e7 Bollinger orta band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 113,62\u2019de; ard\u0131ndan 115,00 seviyesindeki \u00fcst bant izleniyor. Destekler 112,25 ve sonras\u0131nda 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 111,75\u2019te; bu b\u00f6lgenin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 daha derin bir d\u00fczeltme hareketine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n<h3>RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015eahinli\u011fi AUD\u2019yi Destekliyor, Ancak Yen M\u00fcdahalesi Riskleri S\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/h3>\n<p>Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funun Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle Avustralya\u2019da ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi, enflasyonun %4,1 ile beklentilerin belirgin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k tamamen fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte AUD\/JPY\u2019deki temel talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. Bu nedenle, \u00e7apraz kur 111,75 civar\u0131ndaki kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ana e\u011filim olarak \u201cuzun\u201d tarafta kal\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte, denklemin Japon yeni taraf\u0131 anlaml\u0131 bir risk olu\u015fturarak k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. USD\/JPY 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cspek\u00fclatif hareketler\u201d konusunda y\u00fcksek alarmda ve Nisan ile May\u0131s 2024\u2019te yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131klar\u0131 milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleler h\u00e2l\u00e2 haf\u0131zalarda. Yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ihtimalinin somut bir tehdit olmas\u0131, 113,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin agresif \u015fekilde kovalanmas\u0131 konusunda bizi temkinli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Belirsiz Y\u00f6n Ortam\u0131nda Opsiyonlarla Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n<p>\u015eahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 ile olas\u0131 kur m\u00fcdahalesi aras\u0131ndaki bu temel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, sert bir hareketin yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; ancak y\u00f6n belirsiz. Gelecek haftaki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olay riski ve yen m\u00fcdahalesi tehdidinin s\u00fcreklili\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, z\u0131mni volatilitenin mevcut seviyelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde her iki y\u00f6ne olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak ad\u0131na \u201cstraddle\u201d stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmek istiyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Halihaz\u0131rda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in ana endi\u015fe, Japon yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla tetiklenebilecek ani bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 riski. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in 112,25 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu put\u2019lar\u0131n maliyetini dengelemek i\u00e7in ise 113,62 direnci yak\u0131n\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak, ani bir ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayan bir \u201ccollar\u201d olu\u015fturabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/JPY 112,40\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131: RBA \u015fahinli\u011fi AUD\u2019yi destekliyor, ancak olas\u0131 yen m\u00fcdahalesi y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenliyor. Teknikte 112,25-111,75 kritik; 113,62-115,00 diren\u00e7. Opsiyonda straddle\/collar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48585\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}