USD\/JPY, Asya i\u015flemlerinde iki seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 160,50 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; parite daha \u00f6nce alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 160,56\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fiyat hareketi sakin seyrederken, piyasalar Japon yetkililerin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini tartt\u0131. Bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kur hareketlerini izledi\u011fini belirterek piyasa istikrar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ), Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 artan enerji maliyetleriyle m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesi yayg\u0131n bi\u00e7imde bekleniyor. Gerilim, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 derhal ve tamamen kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve ticari ile petrol gemilerini uyarmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131. Risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ayr\u0131ca, \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130\u00e7 Cephe Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan \u0130srail\u2019in kuzeyine y\u00f6nelik f\u0131rlatmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan erken uyar\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler ve ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CENTCOM) ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019da hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump da ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 nihai hale getirilmezse sert askeri eylem uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer geri ad\u0131m atmayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,50 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tansiyon ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirgin bir \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Japon yetkililer rahats\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde i\u015faret ediyor ve \u00f6zellikle 2024\u2019te yine bu seviyeler civar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan m\u00fcdahalelerden, do\u011frudan aksiyon ihtimalinin ger\u00e7ek oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. Bu durum parite \u00fczerinde sert bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor ve uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc riskli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r; piyasalar yeniden canlanan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, bankaya \u00f6nceki beklentilere k\u0131yasla daha agresif davranmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerek\u00e7eler sunuyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir art\u0131\u015f dahi, yenin keskin ve anl\u0131k bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, tabloyu karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131ran ciddi bir enflasyon \u015foku niteli\u011finde. Bu jeopolitik kriz, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; yenin \u015fimdiden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmemesinin temel nedeni de bu. Kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endekslerinin, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n patlak vermesinden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu ortam, risk y\u00f6netimi ve oynakl\u0131k \u00fczerine pozisyon almak amac\u0131yla opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131 ya da do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak i\u00e7in, iki ila d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n temkinli bir strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Alternatif olarak, uzun straddle pozisyonu, mevcut kilitlenmenin s\u00fcrmesi zor oldu\u011fundan, iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019daki askeri eylemi ve sert siyasi s\u00f6ylem, ABD dolar\u0131 alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutarak parite i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu da, yenin olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin, dolarda g\u00fcvenlik arayanlar\u0131n \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201dlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle paritede do\u011frudan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6nermiyor; bunun yerine riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160,50\u2019de: M\u00fcdahale riski masada, BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolar talebini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131yor; iki-d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k put veya straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}