G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), iki seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak Asya i\u015flemlerinde ons ba\u015f\u0131na 64,00 dolar civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Fiyatlar, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 11 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 61,50 dolardan tepki verdi. Bu hareket, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan seyrini korurken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn hem parasal \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d hem de sanayi girdisi olma \u015feklindeki ikili rol\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131. Ancak ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ikinci g\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da uzun s\u00fcrebilecek bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalini art\u0131rarak enflasyon endi\u015felerine de katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD, \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d kapsam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n, bir Amerikan helikopterinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini takiben geldi\u011fini; bunun ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bahreyn, \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Kuveyt\u2019teki ABD tesislerine misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frularken, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131lmazsa a\u011f\u0131r bir askeri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Makro tarafta, May\u0131s ABD enflasyonu artan enerji maliyetleriyle \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti ancak beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; piyasalar Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini k\u0131smen geri \u00e7ekti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f h\u00e2l\u00e2 tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; odak May\u0131s \u00dcFE (PPI) ve Haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in gergin bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yaratan iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan gerilim, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve bu da son dip seviyelerden gelen toparlanmay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ancak bu durum, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele konusunda kararl\u0131 \u015fahin bir Fed ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle \u00e7at\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, volatilitenin artaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da basit y\u00f6n bahisleri alanlar yerine opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Fiyat hareketinin kendisinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen, \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi stratejilerin etkili olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 kapal\u0131 call (covered call) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda gelir yaratmak ad\u0131na temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, k\u0131ymetli metallerde ilk etapta keskin bir g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yarat\u0131r; ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma geni\u015flemezse bu etki \u00e7o\u011fu zaman s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Ocak 2020\u2019de ABD\u2019nin \u0130ranl\u0131 bir generale y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131, hem alt\u0131n hem g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k bir hafta y\u00fckseldikten sonra, topyek\u00fbn sava\u015f endi\u015feleri azal\u0131nca geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Mevcut hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r ve daha geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmezse, benzer bir desenin tekrarlanabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm piyasan\u0131n temelinde, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi talebi yer al\u0131yor ve bu da fiyatlar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. The Silver Institute projeksiyonlar\u0131, sanayi t\u00fcketiminin rekor bir y\u0131la do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini; g\u00fcne\u015f paneli ve 5G teknolojisi sekt\u00f6rlerinden gelen talebin y\u0131ll\u0131k %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel dinamik, makroekonomik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ana kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r, \u00f6nemli bir ralli denemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan Fed politikas\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. May\u0131s enflasyonunun \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla piyasa Fed\u2019in harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fine ikna olmu\u015f durumda; CME FedWatch Tool verileri de Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu beklenti, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutarak g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli bir bask\u0131 unsuru olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6reli de\u011fer g\u00f6stergesi olarak alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Oran son d\u00f6nemde 85 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu seviye, yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 olan tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Jeopolitik korkunun alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ften daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ve oran\u0131 100\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda, bunu g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn belirgin bi\u00e7imde ucuzlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve g\u00f6reli olarak daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiririz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, 61,50 dolardan tepkiyle 64,00\u2019e toparland\u0131; jeopolitik g\u00fcvenli liman talebi desteklerken \u015fahin Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenliyor. Sanayi talebi taban, veri g\u00fcndemi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47752,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48578\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}