USD\/CAD, haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olarak tan\u0131mlanan 1,3900\u2019den gece saatlerinde gelen toparlanman\u0131n \u00fczerine in\u015fa edemedi ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda hafif geriledi. Parite, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrini korurken 1,3900\u2019lerin ortas\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; sinyallerin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmas\u0131yla g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,10\u2019un alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden Petrol\u2019\u00fcn toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131na da destek verdi. ABD Dolar\u0131 ise bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ancak gerilimin t\u0131rmanma riski nedeniyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebi g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00d6te yandan artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutarak daha \u015fahin bir Fed beklentisini peki\u015ftirdi. CME Group FedWatch Tool, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 artarak son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) g\u00fcvercin olarak nitelendirildi. G\u00f6zler, Orta Do\u011fu geli\u015fmeleri ve Petrol hareketleriyle birlikte Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00dcFE verisinde.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ana belirleyicinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Artan gerilim, Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol\u00fcn (WTI) varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 2022\u2019den bu yana ilk kez 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak Kanada dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu durum USD\/CAD paritesi i\u00e7in zorlu bir \u201c\u00e7eki\u015fme\u201d ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak ayn\u0131 jeopolitik gerilim, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini de art\u0131rarak paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yo\u011fun \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemleri, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel sermayenin g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu dinami\u011fin, k\u0131sa vadede USD\/CAD\u2019de sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 engellemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 derinle\u015fiyor. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son ABD T\u00dcFE raporu, enflasyonun %3,8 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoC, son GSYH verilerinin Kanada ekonomisinin ilk \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermesiyle y\u0131l sonuna kadar olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131 bu artan ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; CME FedWatch Tool art\u0131k Fed\u2019in yaz boyunca faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 seviyesinde g\u00f6steriyor ve yak\u0131n vadeli bir indirime y\u00f6nelik umutlar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu beklenti, ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor; bu da USD\/CAD\u2019in daha yukar\u0131da kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen temel fakt\u00f6rlerden biri. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatilitenin fiyatlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131t r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CAD\u2019de net y\u00f6n tahminine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n riskli oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Her iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket potansiyeli artm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da straddle veya strangle gibi \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerinin kolayl\u0131kla k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketi yaratabilece\u011fi bir ortamda, y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 krizi USD\/CAD\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor: Petrol 95 dolar \u00fcst\u00fc CAD\u2019i desteklerken, g\u00fcvenli liman dolar ve \u015fahin Fed beklentisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ABD \u00dcFE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}