EUR\/USD, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde yap\u0131lacak Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fi beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,1540 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. Beklenen ad\u0131m, ECB\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olacak. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olas\u0131 ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerine kar\u015f\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterece\u011fi yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda ve y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ad\u0131m\u0131n tek seferlik bir ayarlama m\u0131 yoksa 2026\u2019da ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Ayr\u0131 olarak jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir: ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cs\u00fcrmekte olan sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d yan\u0131t olarak ABD\u2019nin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019da sald\u0131r\u0131lar ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130slami Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu ise, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n petrol tankerleri ve ticari gemiler dahil t\u00fcm gemilere derhal kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve ge\u00e7i\u015fe te\u015febb\u00fcs eden herhangi bir geminin hedef al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Piyasaya ayn\u0131 anda etki eden iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bug\u00fcn beklenen ECB faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Euro i\u00e7in net bir pozitif. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 ile jeopoliti\u011fin bu \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u015fimdilik EUR\/USD\u2019de net bir y\u00f6n hareketinden ziyade fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) de bu artan piyasa kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tarak 26\u2019ya y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Gelecekteki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerdeki ECB bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olacak. Son veriler Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da bu y\u0131l birden fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ba\u015fkan Lagarde\u2019dan gelebilecek s\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin ya da g\u00fcvercin mesajlar\u0131 i\u015flemine y\u00f6nelik olarak k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme. Brent petrol, gece i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu, 2019\u2019daki benzer gerilimlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015ftan daha sert bir tepkiye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu arz \u015fokunu fiyatlamak i\u00e7in ham petrolde ve enerji hisselerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n alman\u0131n do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rman\u0131rsa, sermayenin birincil g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelmesini bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, daha riskli para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131yla bir miktar maruziyet ta\u015f\u0131mak ihtiyatl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mevcut uzun Euro pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in ise, EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet etkin bir koruma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019nin 3 y\u0131l sonra ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1540\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi ve petrol \u015foku Dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Lagarde mesajlar\u0131 kritik; volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131, opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48571\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}