WTI, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ikinci g\u00fcn sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ve uzayan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n arz kesintisi yaratabilece\u011fine dair yenilenen endi\u015felere petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n tepki vermesiyle, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,70 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci seans \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Trump, ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 \u201c\u00e7ok sert\u201d vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer d\u0131\u015f tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 direneceklerini belirtti. T\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, bir Amerikan helikopterinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d kapsam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 ve bunun sonras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bahreyn, \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Kuveyt\u2019teki ABD tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
Trump ayr\u0131ca ABD ordusunun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan 100 milyon varilden fazla petrol\u00fc\u2014k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00fcn\u00fc\u2014gizlice refakat ederek ge\u00e7irdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve mevcut 85-90 dolar band\u0131ndaki petrol seviyelerini, fiyatlar\u0131n 250 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi bir senaryoyla k\u0131yaslad\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, EIA verileri ge\u00e7en hafta ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n Reuters anketinde beklenen 4 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 7,2 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterirken, Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR) A\u011fustos 2023\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi; Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 rezervden 40 milyon varile kadar petrol\u00fcn \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 verilmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n birincil belirleyicisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve misilleme hamleleri ciddi bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; piyasalar da bunu risk primi olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. West Texas Intermediate\u2019\u0131n 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131yla, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n izlemesi gereken en \u00f6nemli unsurun volatilite oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) son bir haftada %35\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 45 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, opsiyon primlerinin geni\u015fledi\u011fini ve piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna paralel olarak, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinden faydalanabilecek al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alma taraf\u0131na bakarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos WTI kontratlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest) art\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle 100 ve 110 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike) etraf\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015fma, bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde olu\u015fabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle yakalama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Temel arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bu y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. ABD stoklar\u0131nda beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen 7,2 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nin A\u011fustos 2023\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye inmesi, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 absorbe edecek tamponun \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin SPR\u2019den petrol \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 verme plan\u0131, piyasan\u0131n mevcut s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan ge\u00e7ici bir tedbir niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik \u015foklar, 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI\u2019\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00fcretici olan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren do\u011frudan bir kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geli\u015fin, benzer hatta daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etki yaratma potansiyeli bulunuyor. Bu emsal, 100 dolar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinin de ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanabilecek herhangi bir aksama en kritik risk olmaya devam ediyor; zira her g\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol bu ge\u00e7itten ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Uzayan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bu kritik bo\u011faz\u0131 tehdit ederken, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 kesintiler dahi fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu nedenle uzun (long) y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fumuzu koruyor ve volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde alarm zilleri: WTI 90,70 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz risk primiyle fiyatlan\u0131yor; OVX %35 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Stoklar 7,2 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, SPR dipte; 100+ dolar hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48570\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}