ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcne girerken, ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gerek\u00e7esiz ve s\u00fcrmekte olan sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi; Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth ise \u201ckilit tesislerin\u201d vuruldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran medyas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yak\u0131n Minab ve Sirik \u00e7evresinde isabetler oldu\u011funu bildirdi. \u201cKalan bo\u015fluklar\u0131 kapatmak\u201d amac\u0131yla Tahran\u2019a giden bir Katarl\u0131 heyet, son sald\u0131r\u0131lar ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fclkedeydi; bu durum, olas\u0131 bir arabuluculuk kanal\u0131na ili\u015fkin zamanlamay\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan, \u00fclkenin elektrik, su ve ula\u015f\u0131m a\u011flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditleri \u201czay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti\u201d olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n
Tahran\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131, \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (IRGC) Telegram kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden duyuruldu: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cpetrol tankerleri ve ticari gemiler d\u00e2hil t\u00fcm gemilere kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d, karar\u0131n derhal y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi\u011fi ve ge\u00e7i\u015fe te\u015febb\u00fcs eden her geminin hedef al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. JPMorgan, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr trafi\u011fin sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %15\u2019ine indi\u011fini tahmin ederken; ABD a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, 200\u2019\u00fc a\u015fk\u0131n ticari geminin refakatle ge\u00e7i\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n iyile\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. \u0130ran donanmas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca, Basra K\u00f6rfezi ve Umman Denizi\u2019nde demirde bulunan gemilere demir yerinden ayr\u0131lmamalar\u0131 talimat\u0131 verdi; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn ikinci bir duyuruya kadar kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 da, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ile Donald Trump aras\u0131nda herhangi bir temas oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidi, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc an\u0131nda risk alt\u0131na sokuyor. Bunu, haziran\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 ve temmuz boyunca ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7eli\u015fkili haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu durumun iyile\u015fmeden \u00f6nce daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fi i\u00e7in Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol\u2014d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte biri\u2014bu darbo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. Tarihsel olarak 1990 K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 gibi benzer kesintiler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n iki ay i\u00e7inde iki kattan fazla artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu hafta %8 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan Brent kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n, tam ya da uzun s\u00fcreli bir kapanmay\u0131 hen\u00fcz fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fczeyde belirsizlik, piyasa volatilitesi i\u00e7in adeta yak\u0131t. VIX endeksi ge\u00e7en ay 14\u2019l\u00fck dip seviyeden 25\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar birbirini yalanlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e 30-35 band\u0131n\u0131 test etmesini bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle artan piyasa korkusuna kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerinde bir vergi etkisi yarat\u0131r; bu nedenle geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. S&P 500\u2019deki sat\u0131m (put) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve \u00f6zellikle ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve havayolu hisselerini hedefliyoruz. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerin, bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yak\u0131t fiyat \u015fokunu absorbe etme kapasitesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu jeopolitik gerilimden fayda sa\u011flayan sekt\u00f6rlerde belirgin yukar\u0131 potansiyel g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck savunma y\u00fcklenicileri ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli enerji \u00fcreticilerinde uzun al\u0131m (call) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Bu \u015firketler artan askeri harcamalardan ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011finden fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan tehdit, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hisselerinde pozisyonu cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde \u00f6nemli tanker maruziyeti olan herhangi bir \u015firket art\u0131k sigortalanamaz riskler ve operasyonel kaosla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck tanker operat\u00f6rlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de alarm: ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131rken Tahran bo\u011faz\u0131 t\u00fcm gemilere kapatt\u0131, hedef tehdidi savurdu. Petrol arz\u0131 riske girdi; Brent\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015f, VIX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama ve endekslerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48568\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}