Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli imalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 Anket Endeksi (BSI), ikinci \u00e7eyrekte beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak g\u00fcvene dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha zay\u0131f bir tabloya i\u015faret etti. \u00c7eyreklik bazda endeks -1,8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve 4,2 olan piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, beklentilere k\u0131yasla endeksin negatif b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6nmesiyle dikkat \u00e7ekiyor ve d\u00f6nem boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fck imalat\u00e7\u0131lar aras\u0131nda ko\u015fullar\u0131n bozuldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. BSI, Japonya\u2019da \u015firket ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenen bir g\u00f6sterge ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek sonucu, sekt\u00f6rdeki ivmenin piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli imalat\u00e7\u0131lara y\u00f6nelik BSI, tahmin edilen iyimser 4,2\u2019nin aksine beklenmedik \u015fekilde -1,8\u2019e geriledi. Bu negatif okuma, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n sanayi \u00e7ekirde\u011finde duyarl\u0131l\u0131kta belirgin bir bozulmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, piyasan\u0131n fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrden altta yatan bir ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japon Yeni\u2019nin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da zay\u0131flamaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), ekonomik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme e\u011filiminde oldu; bu veri de s\u00f6z konusu duru\u015fu peki\u015ftiriyor. USD\/JPY paritesi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, paritede daha yukar\u0131 bir harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu imalat taraf\u0131ndaki k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin, \u00f6zellikle Nikkei 225 endeksi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Japon hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturmas\u0131 muhtemel. Endekste a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan kilit sanayi ve ihracat odakl\u0131 \u015firketler bu zay\u0131f ko\u015fullardan do\u011frudan etkileniyor. Bu nedenle, mevcut seviyelerden olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla Nikkei 225 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131f yurt i\u00e7i veri, k\u00fcresel talepte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret eden son verilerle de birle\u015fiyor; \u00c7in\u2019in son ihracat rakamlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme yaln\u0131zca %6,1 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat odakl\u0131 ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki bu d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak, imalat\u00e7\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bu denli sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hisse piyasas\u0131nda zay\u0131f performans d\u00f6nemlerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Beklenti ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri aras\u0131ndaki belirgin fark, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesin olarak art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Nikkei\u2019nin VIX benzeri volatilite g\u00f6stergesi \u015fimdiden 18,5 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi ve daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu da, endeks \u00fczerinde uzun straddle gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; zira s\u00fcrpriz makro verileri takiben g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan getiriyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz alarm\u0131: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck imalat\u00e7\u0131 BSI endeksi 2. \u00e7eyrekte -1,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek 4,2 beklentisini bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; yen bask\u0131lanabilir, Nikkei\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilme ve volatilitede art\u0131\u015f g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48567\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}